Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued 2026 season forecasts. Only five Cat 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since 1851 (1928, 1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), none since Hurricane Michael despite active years like 2025's three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which struck Caribbean islands but not the U.S. Emerging El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen this summer per NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks, typically suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. NOAA's full 2026 outlook releases May 21, with the season starting June 1; any shift to La Niña could alter probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued 2026 season forecasts. Only five Cat 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since 1851 (1928, 1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), none since Hurricane Michael despite active years like 2025's three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which struck Caribbean islands but not the U.S. Emerging El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen this summer per NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks, typically suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. NOAA's full 2026 outlook releases May 21, with the season starting June 1; any shift to La Niña could alter probabilities.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$135,286End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued 2026 season forecasts. Only five Cat 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since 1851 (1928, 1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), none since Hurricane Michael despite active years like 2025's three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which struck Caribbean islands but not the U.S. Emerging El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen this summer per NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks, typically suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. NOAA's full 2026 outlook releases May 21, with the season starting June 1; any shift to La Niña could alter probabilities.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$135,286End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued 2026 season forecasts. Only five Cat 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since 1851 (1928, 1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), none since Hurricane Michael despite active years like 2025's three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which struck Caribbean islands but not the U.S. Emerging El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen this summer per NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks, typically suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. NOAA's full 2026 outlook releases May 21, with the season starting June 1; any shift to La Niña could alter probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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