Current low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by a prolonged 2026 drought with below-average rainfall and high temperatures since spring, position October as the leading window for return to normal. Gauges from Germany through Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania show readings well below Danube Commission low-water references as of late September, with restricted navigation and forecasts indicating persistent dryness or only marginal rises through month-end. Seasonal patterns typically bring some autumn precipitation relief, supporting trader consensus around an October rebound, while the notable share favoring no recovery by November 1 reflects risks of extended dry conditions or delayed upstream inflows. Slight recent upticks at isolated stations have not yet altered the broader low-flow trajectory.