**Trader consensus on "No" at 98.8% for a human moon landing in 2026 stems from NASA's confirmed Artemis timeline shifts and persistent hardware delays.** Following Artemis II's successful crewed lunar flyby in April 2026, the agency redesignated Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to test Orion docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon human landing systems (HLS), pushing the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028. Recent Starship propulsion anomalies during September 2026 test flights have compounded schedule pressure on the HLS, while both commercial providers continue facing technical and certification hurdles documented in NASA OIG reports. With only three months remaining and no alternative programs positioned for a 2026 surface mission, the near-certain market odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of verified development timelines rather than speculation.