Recent severe weather activity, including a notable outbreak across the Southeast on May 6–7 that produced multiple confirmed tornadoes in Mississippi and neighboring states, has lifted preliminary counts above the climatological pace for the first half of the month. The Storm Prediction Center’s early reports show elevated convective initiation tied to favorable moisture return and shear, yet model guidance for the remaining two weeks indicates potential moderation as the upper-level pattern shifts. This uncertainty keeps trader sentiment tightly balanced around the historical May average of roughly 265 tornadoes, with outcomes near 200–229 and 260–289 both heavily favored as forecasters await updated runs and daily verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
260–289 40%
200–229 39%
230–259 39%
290–319 15%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
36%
200–229
39%
230–259
39%
260–289
40%
290–319
15%
320–349
11%
350–379
10%
380–410
8%
410+
10%
260–289 40%
200–229 39%
230–259 39%
290–319 15%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$215 Vol.
36%
200–229
$0 Vol.
39%
230–259
$0 Vol.
39%
260–289
$0 Vol.
40%
290–319
$0 Vol.
15%
320–349
$0 Vol.
11%
350–379
$0 Vol.
10%
380–410
$0 Vol.
8%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather activity, including a notable outbreak across the Southeast on May 6–7 that produced multiple confirmed tornadoes in Mississippi and neighboring states, has lifted preliminary counts above the climatological pace for the first half of the month. The Storm Prediction Center’s early reports show elevated convective initiation tied to favorable moisture return and shear, yet model guidance for the remaining two weeks indicates potential moderation as the upper-level pattern shifts. This uncertainty keeps trader sentiment tightly balanced around the historical May average of roughly 265 tornadoes, with outcomes near 200–229 and 260–289 both heavily favored as forecasters await updated runs and daily verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$215End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather activity, including a notable outbreak across the Southeast on May 6–7 that produced multiple confirmed tornadoes in Mississippi and neighboring states, has lifted preliminary counts above the climatological pace for the first half of the month. The Storm Prediction Center’s early reports show elevated convective initiation tied to favorable moisture return and shear, yet model guidance for the remaining two weeks indicates potential moderation as the upper-level pattern shifts. This uncertainty keeps trader sentiment tightly balanced around the historical May average of roughly 265 tornadoes, with outcomes near 200–229 and 260–289 both heavily favored as forecasters await updated runs and daily verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$215End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather activity, including a notable outbreak across the Southeast on May 6–7 that produced multiple confirmed tornadoes in Mississippi and neighboring states, has lifted preliminary counts above the climatological pace for the first half of the month. The Storm Prediction Center’s early reports show elevated convective initiation tied to favorable moisture return and shear, yet model guidance for the remaining two weeks indicates potential moderation as the upper-level pattern shifts. This uncertainty keeps trader sentiment tightly balanced around the historical May average of roughly 265 tornadoes, with outcomes near 200–229 and 260–289 both heavily favored as forecasters await updated runs and daily verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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