USGS data confirms no magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20—now over three weeks ago—amid a period of relative seismic quiescence. This lull, while within normal variability, sits below the long-term global average of about 16 such major quakes annually, modeled as a Poisson process with no reliable short-term forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this baseline rate, pricing nearer-term outcomes lower as time windows tighten, with probabilities rising for extended horizons like late May. Continuous USGS monitoring via seismic networks provides real-time detection, though final magnitudes may revise slightly within 24 hours post-event; watch for updates on earthquake.usgs.gov as the primary resolution source.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$23,592 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 15
15%
May 30
51%
$23,592 Vol.
May 15
$2,700 Vol.
15%
May 30
$7,644 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirms no magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20—now over three weeks ago—amid a period of relative seismic quiescence. This lull, while within normal variability, sits below the long-term global average of about 16 such major quakes annually, modeled as a Poisson process with no reliable short-term forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this baseline rate, pricing nearer-term outcomes lower as time windows tighten, with probabilities rising for extended horizons like late May. Continuous USGS monitoring via seismic networks provides real-time detection, though final magnitudes may revise slightly within 24 hours post-event; watch for updates on earthquake.usgs.gov as the primary resolution source.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$23,592End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirms no magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20—now over three weeks ago—amid a period of relative seismic quiescence. This lull, while within normal variability, sits below the long-term global average of about 16 such major quakes annually, modeled as a Poisson process with no reliable short-term forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this baseline rate, pricing nearer-term outcomes lower as time windows tighten, with probabilities rising for extended horizons like late May. Continuous USGS monitoring via seismic networks provides real-time detection, though final magnitudes may revise slightly within 24 hours post-event; watch for updates on earthquake.usgs.gov as the primary resolution source.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$23,592End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data confirms no magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20—now over three weeks ago—amid a period of relative seismic quiescence. This lull, while within normal variability, sits below the long-term global average of about 16 such major quakes annually, modeled as a Poisson process with no reliable short-term forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this baseline rate, pricing nearer-term outcomes lower as time windows tighten, with probabilities rising for extended horizons like late May. Continuous USGS monitoring via seismic networks provides real-time detection, though final magnitudes may revise slightly within 24 hours post-event; watch for updates on earthquake.usgs.gov as the primary resolution source.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions