Official forecasts from the UK Met Office project a minimum temperature of 9°C overnight into May 17 in London, driven by clear skies and light northerly winds that promote radiational cooling after daytime maxima near 17°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO show close agreement on this range, with minor spreads arising from uncertainties in low-level cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could allow the low to settle between 8°C and 11°C. Historical May climatology for the city centers around 8–10°C minima, providing context for why traders have concentrated implied probabilities on the 9–11°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 8°C or above 12°C. Updated model runs and any late adjustments in wind forecasts over the next 24 hours will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 17?
Lowest temperature in London on May 17?
11°C 32%
10°C 25%
9°C 19%
12°C or higher 11%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
9%
9°C
23%
10°C
25%
11°C
30%
12°C or higher
11%
11°C 32%
10°C 25%
9°C 19%
12°C or higher 11%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$337 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$293 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$288 Vol.
1%
7°C
$309 Vol.
1%
8°C
$207 Vol.
9%
9°C
$50 Vol.
23%
10°C
$83 Vol.
25%
11°C
$108 Vol.
30%
12°C or higher
$377 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the UK Met Office project a minimum temperature of 9°C overnight into May 17 in London, driven by clear skies and light northerly winds that promote radiational cooling after daytime maxima near 17°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO show close agreement on this range, with minor spreads arising from uncertainties in low-level cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could allow the low to settle between 8°C and 11°C. Historical May climatology for the city centers around 8–10°C minima, providing context for why traders have concentrated implied probabilities on the 9–11°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 8°C or above 12°C. Updated model runs and any late adjustments in wind forecasts over the next 24 hours will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,317End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the UK Met Office project a minimum temperature of 9°C overnight into May 17 in London, driven by clear skies and light northerly winds that promote radiational cooling after daytime maxima near 17°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO show close agreement on this range, with minor spreads arising from uncertainties in low-level cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could allow the low to settle between 8°C and 11°C. Historical May climatology for the city centers around 8–10°C minima, providing context for why traders have concentrated implied probabilities on the 9–11°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 8°C or above 12°C. Updated model runs and any late adjustments in wind forecasts over the next 24 hours will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,317End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCOfficial forecasts from the UK Met Office project a minimum temperature of 9°C overnight into May 17 in London, driven by clear skies and light northerly winds that promote radiational cooling after daytime maxima near 17°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO show close agreement on this range, with minor spreads arising from uncertainties in low-level cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could allow the low to settle between 8°C and 11°C. Historical May climatology for the city centers around 8–10°C minima, providing context for why traders have concentrated implied probabilities on the 9–11°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 8°C or above 12°C. Updated model runs and any late adjustments in wind forecasts over the next 24 hours will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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