Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position Houston’s May 18 high near the long-term normal of 88 °F, with guidance clustering between 84 °F and 90 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This places the 88 °F-or-higher outcome at the head of trader pricing because climatological averages and current sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf favor modest warming rather than a strong cold front or deep moisture surge. Ensemble spread remains modest, limiting the probability of sub-84 °F readings, while the absence of significant upper-level ridging keeps the chance of 90 °F-plus values below 50 %. Updated short-range model output expected from the NHC and local NWS offices over the next 24–36 hours will refine these boundaries ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 18?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 18?
88°F or higher 56%
86-87°F 35%
84-85°F 11%
82-83°F 5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
35%
88°F or higher
51%
88°F or higher 56%
86-87°F 35%
84-85°F 11%
82-83°F 5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
$220 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$556 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$780 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$546 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$747 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$401 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$85 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$40 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$41 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$114 Vol.
35%
88°F or higher
$106 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position Houston’s May 18 high near the long-term normal of 88 °F, with guidance clustering between 84 °F and 90 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This places the 88 °F-or-higher outcome at the head of trader pricing because climatological averages and current sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf favor modest warming rather than a strong cold front or deep moisture surge. Ensemble spread remains modest, limiting the probability of sub-84 °F readings, while the absence of significant upper-level ridging keeps the chance of 90 °F-plus values below 50 %. Updated short-range model output expected from the NHC and local NWS offices over the next 24–36 hours will refine these boundaries ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,636End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position Houston’s May 18 high near the long-term normal of 88 °F, with guidance clustering between 84 °F and 90 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This places the 88 °F-or-higher outcome at the head of trader pricing because climatological averages and current sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf favor modest warming rather than a strong cold front or deep moisture surge. Ensemble spread remains modest, limiting the probability of sub-84 °F readings, while the absence of significant upper-level ridging keeps the chance of 90 °F-plus values below 50 %. Updated short-range model output expected from the NHC and local NWS offices over the next 24–36 hours will refine these boundaries ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,636End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOURecent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs position Houston’s May 18 high near the long-term normal of 88 °F, with guidance clustering between 84 °F and 90 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This places the 88 °F-or-higher outcome at the head of trader pricing because climatological averages and current sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf favor modest warming rather than a strong cold front or deep moisture surge. Ensemble spread remains modest, limiting the probability of sub-84 °F readings, while the absence of significant upper-level ridging keeps the chance of 90 °F-plus values below 50 %. Updated short-range model output expected from the NHC and local NWS offices over the next 24–36 hours will refine these boundaries ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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