Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's May 16 high temperature, with models like ECMWF and GFS diverging on cloud cover and convective activity amid rising monsoon humidity. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a peak near 27°C, matching the slight edge for that outcome at 23.5%, but scattered thunderstorms could suppress it to 26°C (21.5%) or allow sunnier conditions pushing toward 29–30°C (19.5–24.5%). Recent observations show May 13's high at 28°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 29°C, though increasing rain probabilities (40–50%) introduce volatility. New model runs expected by May 15 will likely refine the tightly clustered probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 16?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 16?
27°C 30%
28°C 30%
26°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
17%
27°C
30%
28°C
30%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
7%
27°C 30%
28°C 30%
26°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
20°C or below
$816 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$611 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$501 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$331 Vol.
1%
25°C
$281 Vol.
4%
26°C
$311 Vol.
17%
27°C
$44 Vol.
30%
28°C
$263 Vol.
30%
29°C
$183 Vol.
15%
30°C or higher
$191 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's May 16 high temperature, with models like ECMWF and GFS diverging on cloud cover and convective activity amid rising monsoon humidity. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a peak near 27°C, matching the slight edge for that outcome at 23.5%, but scattered thunderstorms could suppress it to 26°C (21.5%) or allow sunnier conditions pushing toward 29–30°C (19.5–24.5%). Recent observations show May 13's high at 28°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 29°C, though increasing rain probabilities (40–50%) introduce volatility. New model runs expected by May 15 will likely refine the tightly clustered probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$3,853End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's May 16 high temperature, with models like ECMWF and GFS diverging on cloud cover and convective activity amid rising monsoon humidity. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a peak near 27°C, matching the slight edge for that outcome at 23.5%, but scattered thunderstorms could suppress it to 26°C (21.5%) or allow sunnier conditions pushing toward 29–30°C (19.5–24.5%). Recent observations show May 13's high at 28°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 29°C, though increasing rain probabilities (40–50%) introduce volatility. New model runs expected by May 15 will likely refine the tightly clustered probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,853End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's May 16 high temperature, with models like ECMWF and GFS diverging on cloud cover and convective activity amid rising monsoon humidity. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a peak near 27°C, matching the slight edge for that outcome at 23.5%, but scattered thunderstorms could suppress it to 26°C (21.5%) or allow sunnier conditions pushing toward 29–30°C (19.5–24.5%). Recent observations show May 13's high at 28°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 29°C, though increasing rain probabilities (40–50%) introduce volatility. New model runs expected by May 15 will likely refine the tightly clustered probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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