Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on May 16?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on May 16?
18°C 37%
17°C 25%
19°C 20%
20°C 6%
NEW
$10,206 Vol.
NEW
$10,206 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
25%
18°C
37%
19°C
20%
20°C
6%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 37%
17°C 25%
19°C 20%
20°C 6%
NEW
$10,206 Vol.
NEW
$10,206 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$1,320 Vol.
1%
15°C
$773 Vol.
1%
16°C
$664 Vol.
2%
17°C
$1,349 Vol.
25%
18°C
$1,211 Vol.
37%
19°C
$840 Vol.
20%
20°C
$1,015 Vol.
6%
21°C
$1,512 Vol.
3%
22°C
$294 Vol.
1%
23°C
$480 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$749 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,206End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,206End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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