Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 17?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 17?
15°C 34%
14°C 32%
16°C 16.9%
13°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
11%
14°C
32%
15°C
34%
16°C
17%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
14°C 32%
16°C 16.9%
13°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
10°C or below
$565 Vol.
1%
11°C
$62 Vol.
2%
12°C
$117 Vol.
2%
13°C
$232 Vol.
11%
14°C
$144 Vol.
32%
15°C
$49 Vol.
34%
16°C
$45 Vol.
17%
17°C
$24 Vol.
4%
18°C
$137 Vol.
1%
19°C
$95 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$98 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,517End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,517End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMTrader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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