Latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus for a Shanghai high temperature around 25°C today, positioning it as the market's leading outcome at 40% implied probability, with 24°C (29.5%) and 26°C (21%) close behind. Partial cloudiness lingering from yesterday's early showers caps solar insolation, limiting daytime heating, while light northerly winds at 15-20 km/h moderate the boundary layer after recent highs near 24°C. Mid-May historical averages hover at 25-26°C amid East Asian monsoon transition and urban heat effects from Shanghai Pudong station observations. Uncertainty stems from potential afternoon clearing boosting to 26°C+ or enhanced sea breeze cooling to 24°C; watch CMA's evening update and hourly data for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 39%
24°C 30%
26°C 25%
23°C 6.0%
NEW
$44,647 Vol.
NEW
$44,647 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
30%
25°C
39%
26°C
25%
27°C
6%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 39%
24°C 30%
26°C 25%
23°C 6.0%
NEW
$44,647 Vol.
NEW
$44,647 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$5,679 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,560 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5,229 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5,436 Vol.
6%
24°C
$4,611 Vol.
30%
25°C
$2,884 Vol.
39%
26°C
$2,712 Vol.
25%
27°C
$3,624 Vol.
6%
28°C
$4,876 Vol.
1%
29°C
$3,171 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$2,916 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus for a Shanghai high temperature around 25°C today, positioning it as the market's leading outcome at 40% implied probability, with 24°C (29.5%) and 26°C (21%) close behind. Partial cloudiness lingering from yesterday's early showers caps solar insolation, limiting daytime heating, while light northerly winds at 15-20 km/h moderate the boundary layer after recent highs near 24°C. Mid-May historical averages hover at 25-26°C amid East Asian monsoon transition and urban heat effects from Shanghai Pudong station observations. Uncertainty stems from potential afternoon clearing boosting to 26°C+ or enhanced sea breeze cooling to 24°C; watch CMA's evening update and hourly data for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$44,647End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus for a Shanghai high temperature around 25°C today, positioning it as the market's leading outcome at 40% implied probability, with 24°C (29.5%) and 26°C (21%) close behind. Partial cloudiness lingering from yesterday's early showers caps solar insolation, limiting daytime heating, while light northerly winds at 15-20 km/h moderate the boundary layer after recent highs near 24°C. Mid-May historical averages hover at 25-26°C amid East Asian monsoon transition and urban heat effects from Shanghai Pudong station observations. Uncertainty stems from potential afternoon clearing boosting to 26°C+ or enhanced sea breeze cooling to 24°C; watch CMA's evening update and hourly data for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,647End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus for a Shanghai high temperature around 25°C today, positioning it as the market's leading outcome at 40% implied probability, with 24°C (29.5%) and 26°C (21%) close behind. Partial cloudiness lingering from yesterday's early showers caps solar insolation, limiting daytime heating, while light northerly winds at 15-20 km/h moderate the boundary layer after recent highs near 24°C. Mid-May historical averages hover at 25-26°C amid East Asian monsoon transition and urban heat effects from Shanghai Pudong station observations. Uncertainty stems from potential afternoon clearing boosting to 26°C+ or enhanced sea breeze cooling to 24°C; watch CMA's evening update and hourly data for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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