India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts cap Lucknow's highest temperature on May 16 at around 39°C under mainly clear skies with light winds, driving trader consensus to 96.7% implied probability for 41°C or below. This positioning reflects recent observational data showing moderation after thunderstorms and dust storms cooled early May highs—such as 38.1°C on May 13, 1.7°C below normal—disrupting typical pre-monsoon heat buildup. Historical May averages hover at 39–42°C, but current upper-air patterns and low humidity favor the lower range per model ensembles. Scenarios challenging this include sudden ridge strengthening for enhanced solar heating or forecast revisions from overnight soundings, though IMD's short-range guidance shows strong agreement; check updates through May 16 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
41°C or below 96.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$15,812 Vol.
$15,812 Vol.
41°C or below
96%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 96.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$15,812 Vol.
$15,812 Vol.
41°C or below
96%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts cap Lucknow's highest temperature on May 16 at around 39°C under mainly clear skies with light winds, driving trader consensus to 96.7% implied probability for 41°C or below. This positioning reflects recent observational data showing moderation after thunderstorms and dust storms cooled early May highs—such as 38.1°C on May 13, 1.7°C below normal—disrupting typical pre-monsoon heat buildup. Historical May averages hover at 39–42°C, but current upper-air patterns and low humidity favor the lower range per model ensembles. Scenarios challenging this include sudden ridge strengthening for enhanced solar heating or forecast revisions from overnight soundings, though IMD's short-range guidance shows strong agreement; check updates through May 16 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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