Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
17°C 38%
16°C 36%
18°C 15%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
36%
17°C
38%
18°C
15%
19°C
8%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
17°C 38%
16°C 36%
18°C 15%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
$751 Vol.
1%
14°C
$252 Vol.
3%
15°C
$239 Vol.
7%
16°C
$503 Vol.
36%
17°C
$211 Vol.
38%
18°C
$502 Vol.
15%
19°C
$496 Vol.
8%
20°C
$537 Vol.
3%
21°C
$289 Vol.
1%
22°C
$670 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,127 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$5,567End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,567End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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