Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 17, with ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a broad spread across 55–74°F due to divergent upper-level patterns. Recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate a cooler-than-average May for the Northeast amid an emerging El Niño transition (61% chance May–July), favoring potential cold frontal passages or clear-sky radiative cooling for lower outcomes like 55–59°F, while persistent ridging or cloud cover could push lows toward 66–73°F bins. Historical mid-May lows average 55–60°F, but urban heat island effects often temper extremes. Watch daily 00Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 17?
64-65°F 38%
62-63°F 24%
66-67°F 19%
60-61°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
55°F or below
3%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
24%
64-65°F
38%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
3%
74°F or higher
3%
64-65°F 38%
62-63°F 24%
66-67°F 19%
60-61°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
3%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
24%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
38%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
9%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
3%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 17, with ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a broad spread across 55–74°F due to divergent upper-level patterns. Recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate a cooler-than-average May for the Northeast amid an emerging El Niño transition (61% chance May–July), favoring potential cold frontal passages or clear-sky radiative cooling for lower outcomes like 55–59°F, while persistent ridging or cloud cover could push lows toward 66–73°F bins. Historical mid-May lows average 55–60°F, but urban heat island effects often temper extremes. Watch daily 00Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 17, with ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a broad spread across 55–74°F due to divergent upper-level patterns. Recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate a cooler-than-average May for the Northeast amid an emerging El Niño transition (61% chance May–July), favoring potential cold frontal passages or clear-sky radiative cooling for lower outcomes like 55–59°F, while persistent ridging or cloud cover could push lows toward 66–73°F bins. Historical mid-May lows average 55–60°F, but urban heat island effects often temper extremes. Watch daily 00Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 17, with ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a broad spread across 55–74°F due to divergent upper-level patterns. Recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate a cooler-than-average May for the Northeast amid an emerging El Niño transition (61% chance May–July), favoring potential cold frontal passages or clear-sky radiative cooling for lower outcomes like 55–59°F, while persistent ridging or cloud cover could push lows toward 66–73°F bins. Historical mid-May lows average 55–60°F, but urban heat island effects often temper extremes. Watch daily 00Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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