Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 52-53°F at Central Park (32% implied probability), reflecting the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing overnight lows clustering around 52°F on May 15 amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures—driven by a weakening polar vortex and trough aloft—has set a cooler baseline, with May 11's climate report noting normals near 54°F but actuals lagging. High uncertainty stems from model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where clearer skies could enhance radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (18.4%), while increased clouds or onshore flow might push toward 54-55°F (22%). Watch tomorrow's NWS forecast discussion for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official KN YC observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
52-53°F 36%
50-51°F 23%
54-55°F 12%
56-57°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
41°F or below
<1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
36%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
2%
60°F or higher
1%
52-53°F 36%
50-51°F 23%
54-55°F 12%
56-57°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
41°F or below
$1,426 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$15 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$22 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$65 Vol.
2%
48-49°F
$32 Vol.
5%
50-51°F
$17 Vol.
23%
52-53°F
$58 Vol.
36%
54-55°F
$67 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$147 Vol.
7%
58-59°F
$286 Vol.
2%
60°F or higher
$51 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 52-53°F at Central Park (32% implied probability), reflecting the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing overnight lows clustering around 52°F on May 15 amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures—driven by a weakening polar vortex and trough aloft—has set a cooler baseline, with May 11's climate report noting normals near 54°F but actuals lagging. High uncertainty stems from model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where clearer skies could enhance radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (18.4%), while increased clouds or onshore flow might push toward 54-55°F (22%). Watch tomorrow's NWS forecast discussion for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official KN YC observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$2,186End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 52-53°F at Central Park (32% implied probability), reflecting the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing overnight lows clustering around 52°F on May 15 amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures—driven by a weakening polar vortex and trough aloft—has set a cooler baseline, with May 11's climate report noting normals near 54°F but actuals lagging. High uncertainty stems from model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where clearer skies could enhance radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (18.4%), while increased clouds or onshore flow might push toward 54-55°F (22%). Watch tomorrow's NWS forecast discussion for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official KN YC observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,186End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 52-53°F at Central Park (32% implied probability), reflecting the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing overnight lows clustering around 52°F on May 15 amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures—driven by a weakening polar vortex and trough aloft—has set a cooler baseline, with May 11's climate report noting normals near 54°F but actuals lagging. High uncertainty stems from model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where clearer skies could enhance radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (18.4%), while increased clouds or onshore flow might push toward 54-55°F (22%). Watch tomorrow's NWS forecast discussion for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official KN YC observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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