Latest National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF project New York City's Central Park low temperature on May 16 clustering around the mid-50s°F, driving trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities evenly split across 52-61°F bins amid inherent forecast uncertainty three days out. A lingering upper-level trough following recent frontal passages ushers cooler mid-level air, while light southerly winds and variable low-level clouds curb deeper radiational cooling that could push lows toward 50°F or below (trailing at 13.5% or less). Urban heat island effects and soil moisture from prior showers further moderate extremes. Climatological May 16 normal is 54°F; watch 12Z model updates Thursday for shifts in boundary layer stability and diurnally driven mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 16?
54-55°F 27%
52-53°F 22%
56-57°F 12%
58-59°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
43°F or below
1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
22%
54-55°F
27%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
5%
62°F or higher
1%
54-55°F 27%
52-53°F 22%
56-57°F 12%
58-59°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
43°F or below
$153 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$233 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$55 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
4%
50-51°F
$14 Vol.
5%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
22%
54-55°F
$1 Vol.
27%
56-57°F
$10 Vol.
12%
58-59°F
$20 Vol.
7%
60-61°F
$69 Vol.
5%
62°F or higher
$354 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF project New York City's Central Park low temperature on May 16 clustering around the mid-50s°F, driving trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities evenly split across 52-61°F bins amid inherent forecast uncertainty three days out. A lingering upper-level trough following recent frontal passages ushers cooler mid-level air, while light southerly winds and variable low-level clouds curb deeper radiational cooling that could push lows toward 50°F or below (trailing at 13.5% or less). Urban heat island effects and soil moisture from prior showers further moderate extremes. Climatological May 16 normal is 54°F; watch 12Z model updates Thursday for shifts in boundary layer stability and diurnally driven mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$909End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF project New York City's Central Park low temperature on May 16 clustering around the mid-50s°F, driving trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities evenly split across 52-61°F bins amid inherent forecast uncertainty three days out. A lingering upper-level trough following recent frontal passages ushers cooler mid-level air, while light southerly winds and variable low-level clouds curb deeper radiational cooling that could push lows toward 50°F or below (trailing at 13.5% or less). Urban heat island effects and soil moisture from prior showers further moderate extremes. Climatological May 16 normal is 54°F; watch 12Z model updates Thursday for shifts in boundary layer stability and diurnally driven mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$909End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGALatest National Weather Service guidance and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF project New York City's Central Park low temperature on May 16 clustering around the mid-50s°F, driving trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities evenly split across 52-61°F bins amid inherent forecast uncertainty three days out. A lingering upper-level trough following recent frontal passages ushers cooler mid-level air, while light southerly winds and variable low-level clouds curb deeper radiational cooling that could push lows toward 50°F or below (trailing at 13.5% or less). Urban heat island effects and soil moisture from prior showers further moderate extremes. Climatological May 16 normal is 54°F; watch 12Z model updates Thursday for shifts in boundary layer stability and diurnally driven mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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