National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high of 62–65°F on May 16, anchoring the 41.5% market-implied probability for the 64–65°F bin and 27.5% for 62–63°F. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific sustains a marine layer that advects cool, moist air inland, capping temperatures near the climatological May average of 67°F despite building high pressure that may allow partial stratus burn-off. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on wind speeds of 15–20 mph and overnight recovery to the mid-50s, while prior cooler readings around 62°F reflect thicker cloud cover that traders expect to ease slightly today. Hourly NWS updates and real-time observations remain the key variables that could shift odds toward the 24.5% probability for 66–67°F if clearing accelerates.