MetService's latest forecast, issued late on May 14, projects a maximum temperature of 12°C in Wellington on May 16 under persistent southeasterly winds advecting cool maritime air from the southern ocean, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 13°C (43%) and 12°C (31%). Recent observations show Kelburn reaching 13.9°C on May 14 amid mostly cloudy skies and southerlies, continuing a cool autumn pattern below the May climatological average high of 14°C. Partly cloudy conditions with a low chance of afternoon showers may limit daytime heating, though model ensembles indicate minor uncertainty with potential 1–2°C variance from solar insolation or wind shifts. Traders anticipate stable odds pending the May 15 forecast update from NIWA and MetService.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 16?
13°C 41%
12°C 31%
14°C 13%
11°C 6.2%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
31%
13°C
41%
14°C
13%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
1%
13°C 41%
12°C 31%
14°C 13%
11°C 6.2%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
6°C or below
$911 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$771 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$349 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$852 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$164 Vol.
1%
11°C
$349 Vol.
6%
12°C
$571 Vol.
31%
13°C
$396 Vol.
41%
14°C
$704 Vol.
13%
15°C
$788 Vol.
3%
16°C or higher
$750 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late on May 14, projects a maximum temperature of 12°C in Wellington on May 16 under persistent southeasterly winds advecting cool maritime air from the southern ocean, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 13°C (43%) and 12°C (31%). Recent observations show Kelburn reaching 13.9°C on May 14 amid mostly cloudy skies and southerlies, continuing a cool autumn pattern below the May climatological average high of 14°C. Partly cloudy conditions with a low chance of afternoon showers may limit daytime heating, though model ensembles indicate minor uncertainty with potential 1–2°C variance from solar insolation or wind shifts. Traders anticipate stable odds pending the May 15 forecast update from NIWA and MetService.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$6,583End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late on May 14, projects a maximum temperature of 12°C in Wellington on May 16 under persistent southeasterly winds advecting cool maritime air from the southern ocean, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 13°C (43%) and 12°C (31%). Recent observations show Kelburn reaching 13.9°C on May 14 amid mostly cloudy skies and southerlies, continuing a cool autumn pattern below the May climatological average high of 14°C. Partly cloudy conditions with a low chance of afternoon showers may limit daytime heating, though model ensembles indicate minor uncertainty with potential 1–2°C variance from solar insolation or wind shifts. Traders anticipate stable odds pending the May 15 forecast update from NIWA and MetService.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,583End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast, issued late on May 14, projects a maximum temperature of 12°C in Wellington on May 16 under persistent southeasterly winds advecting cool maritime air from the southern ocean, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 13°C (43%) and 12°C (31%). Recent observations show Kelburn reaching 13.9°C on May 14 amid mostly cloudy skies and southerlies, continuing a cool autumn pattern below the May climatological average high of 14°C. Partly cloudy conditions with a low chance of afternoon showers may limit daytime heating, though model ensembles indicate minor uncertainty with potential 1–2°C variance from solar insolation or wind shifts. Traders anticipate stable odds pending the May 15 forecast update from NIWA and MetService.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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