Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF model ensembles project a maximum temperature of around 20-22°C for Madrid on May 14, aligning trader sentiment with 22°C leading at 43.5% implied probability, followed closely by 21°C at 26.5%. This consensus reflects a rebound from the recent cool spell, including 18.4°C max on May 12 at Retiro station and 19°C forecast for May 13, under northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Mid-May climatology supports highs near 22°C on average, with model spreads of 20-24°C capturing inherent forecast uncertainty from variable mixing heights and frontal influences. Watch evening AEMET updates and Barajas Airport observations for resolution, as diel heating could tip toward 23°C (17%).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
22°C 46%
21°C 22%
23°C 22%
20°C 7%
NEW
$17,225 Vol.
NEW
$17,225 Vol.
May 14, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
7%
21°C
22%
22°C
46%
23°C
22%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 46%
21°C 22%
23°C 22%
20°C 7%
NEW
$17,225 Vol.
NEW
$17,225 Vol.
May 14, 2026
18°C or below
$2,940 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,890 Vol.
1%
20°C
$2,291 Vol.
7%
21°C
$1,835 Vol.
22%
22°C
$1,378 Vol.
46%
23°C
$1,215 Vol.
22%
24°C
$2,047 Vol.
3%
25°C
$1,322 Vol.
1%
26°C
$443 Vol.
1%
27°C
$886 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,056 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF model ensembles project a maximum temperature of around 20-22°C for Madrid on May 14, aligning trader sentiment with 22°C leading at 43.5% implied probability, followed closely by 21°C at 26.5%. This consensus reflects a rebound from the recent cool spell, including 18.4°C max on May 12 at Retiro station and 19°C forecast for May 13, under northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Mid-May climatology supports highs near 22°C on average, with model spreads of 20-24°C capturing inherent forecast uncertainty from variable mixing heights and frontal influences. Watch evening AEMET updates and Barajas Airport observations for resolution, as diel heating could tip toward 23°C (17%).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volume
$17,225End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF model ensembles project a maximum temperature of around 20-22°C for Madrid on May 14, aligning trader sentiment with 22°C leading at 43.5% implied probability, followed closely by 21°C at 26.5%. This consensus reflects a rebound from the recent cool spell, including 18.4°C max on May 12 at Retiro station and 19°C forecast for May 13, under northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Mid-May climatology supports highs near 22°C on average, with model spreads of 20-24°C capturing inherent forecast uncertainty from variable mixing heights and frontal influences. Watch evening AEMET updates and Barajas Airport observations for resolution, as diel heating could tip toward 23°C (17%).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,225End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF model ensembles project a maximum temperature of around 20-22°C for Madrid on May 14, aligning trader sentiment with 22°C leading at 43.5% implied probability, followed closely by 21°C at 26.5%. This consensus reflects a rebound from the recent cool spell, including 18.4°C max on May 12 at Retiro station and 19°C forecast for May 13, under northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Mid-May climatology supports highs near 22°C on average, with model spreads of 20-24°C capturing inherent forecast uncertainty from variable mixing heights and frontal influences. Watch evening AEMET updates and Barajas Airport observations for resolution, as diel heating could tip toward 23°C (17%).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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