**Strong scientific consensus on limited transmissibility underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026.** Most hantaviruses, including those endemic to the Americas, spread primarily through rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human contact, with the Andes virus—the only strain known for occasional person-to-person spread—requiring prolonged close exposure. The 2026 MV Hondius cluster produced just 13 cases and three deaths, all contained through contact tracing and quarantine; U.S. monitoring ended in June with no secondary transmission. Official CDC and WHO data confirm no epidemic growth since, aligning with historical patterns where case-fatality rates remain high but R0 stays too low for pandemic potential. Realistic shifts would require major evolutionary changes in transmission efficiency or an unprecedented rodent spillover into dense populations before year-end.