Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on May 13, reflecting strong alignment from National Weather Service point forecasts and short-range models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensembles. Morning observations at Central Park's KN YC station—rising from 56°F at 8 a.m. to 66°F by 11 a.m. EDT under mostly cloudy skies and south winds of 8-15 mph—track precisely with projected diurnal heating capped by persistent overcast conditions and low insolation. This positions the market-implied odds near climatological normals (71°F average for May 13), with minimal deviation expected. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting solar heating toward 72°F+ or early showers introducing evaporative cooling to 68-69°F, though NWS guidance shows low daytime precipitation risk ahead of evening showers. Hourly updates from NOAA will refine the outlook through afternoon peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 13?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 13?
70-71°F 99.4%
72-73°F <1%
74°F or higher <1%
$140,152 Vol.
$140,152 Vol.
May 13, 2026
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 99.4%
72-73°F <1%
74°F or higher <1%
$140,152 Vol.
$140,152 Vol.
May 13, 2026
70-71°F
$20,693 Vol.
99%
72-73°F
$18,354 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$18,328 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on May 13, reflecting strong alignment from National Weather Service point forecasts and short-range models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensembles. Morning observations at Central Park's KN YC station—rising from 56°F at 8 a.m. to 66°F by 11 a.m. EDT under mostly cloudy skies and south winds of 8-15 mph—track precisely with projected diurnal heating capped by persistent overcast conditions and low insolation. This positions the market-implied odds near climatological normals (71°F average for May 13), with minimal deviation expected. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting solar heating toward 72°F+ or early showers introducing evaporative cooling to 68-69°F, though NWS guidance shows low daytime precipitation risk ahead of evening showers. Hourly updates from NOAA will refine the outlook through afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$140,152End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on May 13, reflecting strong alignment from National Weather Service point forecasts and short-range models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensembles. Morning observations at Central Park's KN YC station—rising from 56°F at 8 a.m. to 66°F by 11 a.m. EDT under mostly cloudy skies and south winds of 8-15 mph—track precisely with projected diurnal heating capped by persistent overcast conditions and low insolation. This positions the market-implied odds near climatological normals (71°F average for May 13), with minimal deviation expected. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting solar heating toward 72°F+ or early showers introducing evaporative cooling to 68-69°F, though NWS guidance shows low daytime precipitation risk ahead of evening showers. Hourly updates from NOAA will refine the outlook through afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$140,152End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on May 13, reflecting strong alignment from National Weather Service point forecasts and short-range models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensembles. Morning observations at Central Park's KN YC station—rising from 56°F at 8 a.m. to 66°F by 11 a.m. EDT under mostly cloudy skies and south winds of 8-15 mph—track precisely with projected diurnal heating capped by persistent overcast conditions and low insolation. This positions the market-implied odds near climatological normals (71°F average for May 13), with minimal deviation expected. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting solar heating toward 72°F+ or early showers introducing evaporative cooling to 68-69°F, though NWS guidance shows low daytime precipitation risk ahead of evening showers. Hourly updates from NOAA will refine the outlook through afternoon peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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