Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
19°C 24%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
19%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
17%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
15%
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
19°C 24%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$11 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$210 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$221End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$221End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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