Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, with ECMWF and GFS models diverging on overnight cloud cover and light winds, yielding spreads from 5°C to 12°C and a slight edge for 8–9°C outcomes at 25.5%. Recent Météo-France guidance points to an unstable pattern persisting through the week of May 11–17, featuring showers and highs barely exceeding 19°C, which could trap heat under clouds or allow radiative cooling to 5–7°C if skies clear post-sunset at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, but current cool anomalies and frontal timing introduce variability; watch 00Z/12Z model updates for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
10°C 31%
12°C or higher 30%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
3%
3°C
3%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
7%
7°C
19%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
31%
11°C
20%
12°C or higher
30%
10°C 31%
12°C or higher 30%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
$14 Vol.
3%
3°C
$14 Vol.
3%
4°C
$4 Vol.
3%
5°C
$4 Vol.
3%
6°C
$4 Vol.
7%
7°C
$4 Vol.
19%
8°C
$4 Vol.
27%
9°C
$4 Vol.
27%
10°C
$4 Vol.
31%
11°C
$4 Vol.
20%
12°C or higher
$24 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, with ECMWF and GFS models diverging on overnight cloud cover and light winds, yielding spreads from 5°C to 12°C and a slight edge for 8–9°C outcomes at 25.5%. Recent Météo-France guidance points to an unstable pattern persisting through the week of May 11–17, featuring showers and highs barely exceeding 19°C, which could trap heat under clouds or allow radiative cooling to 5–7°C if skies clear post-sunset at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, but current cool anomalies and frontal timing introduce variability; watch 00Z/12Z model updates for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$87End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, with ECMWF and GFS models diverging on overnight cloud cover and light winds, yielding spreads from 5°C to 12°C and a slight edge for 8–9°C outcomes at 25.5%. Recent Météo-France guidance points to an unstable pattern persisting through the week of May 11–17, featuring showers and highs barely exceeding 19°C, which could trap heat under clouds or allow radiative cooling to 5–7°C if skies clear post-sunset at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, but current cool anomalies and frontal timing introduce variability; watch 00Z/12Z model updates for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$87End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, with ECMWF and GFS models diverging on overnight cloud cover and light winds, yielding spreads from 5°C to 12°C and a slight edge for 8–9°C outcomes at 25.5%. Recent Météo-France guidance points to an unstable pattern persisting through the week of May 11–17, featuring showers and highs barely exceeding 19°C, which could trap heat under clouds or allow radiative cooling to 5–7°C if skies clear post-sunset at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, but current cool anomalies and frontal timing introduce variability; watch 00Z/12Z model updates for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions