Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich on May 13, driven by the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging tightly on this peak amid persistent cloud cover and a stable northerly airflow capping daytime heating. Current readings from Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source—show temperatures topping out at 14°C during early afternoon, with low solar insolation from overcast skies and cooling evening hours preventing further rises. Model runs over the past 24 hours reflect minimal spread, aligning with climatological norms for a cool mid-May day under high-pressure blocking. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and prolonged sunshine before sunset, though diurnal cooling trends make this unlikely. Final DWD daily summary expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 13?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 13?
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$86,710 Vol.
$86,710 Vol.
May 13, 2026
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$86,710 Vol.
$86,710 Vol.
May 13, 2026
14°C
$9,350 Vol.
100%
15°C
$7,580 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$9,370 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,778 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$7,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich on May 13, driven by the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging tightly on this peak amid persistent cloud cover and a stable northerly airflow capping daytime heating. Current readings from Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source—show temperatures topping out at 14°C during early afternoon, with low solar insolation from overcast skies and cooling evening hours preventing further rises. Model runs over the past 24 hours reflect minimal spread, aligning with climatological norms for a cool mid-May day under high-pressure blocking. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and prolonged sunshine before sunset, though diurnal cooling trends make this unlikely. Final DWD daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$86,710End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich on May 13, driven by the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging tightly on this peak amid persistent cloud cover and a stable northerly airflow capping daytime heating. Current readings from Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source—show temperatures topping out at 14°C during early afternoon, with low solar insolation from overcast skies and cooling evening hours preventing further rises. Model runs over the past 24 hours reflect minimal spread, aligning with climatological norms for a cool mid-May day under high-pressure blocking. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and prolonged sunshine before sunset, though diurnal cooling trends make this unlikely. Final DWD daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$86,710End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich on May 13, driven by the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging tightly on this peak amid persistent cloud cover and a stable northerly airflow capping daytime heating. Current readings from Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source—show temperatures topping out at 14°C during early afternoon, with low solar insolation from overcast skies and cooling evening hours preventing further rises. Model runs over the past 24 hours reflect minimal spread, aligning with climatological norms for a cool mid-May day under high-pressure blocking. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and prolonged sunshine before sunset, though diurnal cooling trends make this unlikely. Final DWD daily summary expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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