Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no confirmed hantavirus case in the United States by May 15, driven by the disease's rarity—averaging 20–40 laboratory-confirmed hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases annually since 1993, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveillance, primarily from rodent exposure in western states—and the absence of any nationally reported 2026 domestic cases to date. A multi-country Andes virus (a hantavirus strain) cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, first noted May 2 with eight cases (six confirmed) and three deaths abroad as of May 8, has prompted CDC monitoring of returned U.S. passengers across multiple states, but no U.S. cases have been confirmed or suspected from this event, with public health risk assessed as extremely low. With just two days until resolution and no new endemic reports amid typical spring seasonality, traders anticipate surveillance updates will show no qualifying cases, though pending tests on exposed individuals could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
$735,824 Vol.
$735,824 Vol.
May 15, 2026
$735,824 Vol.
$735,824 Vol.
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no confirmed hantavirus case in the United States by May 15, driven by the disease's rarity—averaging 20–40 laboratory-confirmed hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases annually since 1993, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveillance, primarily from rodent exposure in western states—and the absence of any nationally reported 2026 domestic cases to date. A multi-country Andes virus (a hantavirus strain) cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, first noted May 2 with eight cases (six confirmed) and three deaths abroad as of May 8, has prompted CDC monitoring of returned U.S. passengers across multiple states, but no U.S. cases have been confirmed or suspected from this event, with public health risk assessed as extremely low. With just two days until resolution and no new endemic reports amid typical spring seasonality, traders anticipate surveillance updates will show no qualifying cases, though pending tests on exposed individuals could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
Volume
$735,824End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no confirmed hantavirus case in the United States by May 15, driven by the disease's rarity—averaging 20–40 laboratory-confirmed hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases annually since 1993, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveillance, primarily from rodent exposure in western states—and the absence of any nationally reported 2026 domestic cases to date. A multi-country Andes virus (a hantavirus strain) cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, first noted May 2 with eight cases (six confirmed) and three deaths abroad as of May 8, has prompted CDC monitoring of returned U.S. passengers across multiple states, but no U.S. cases have been confirmed or suspected from this event, with public health risk assessed as extremely low. With just two days until resolution and no new endemic reports amid typical spring seasonality, traders anticipate surveillance updates will show no qualifying cases, though pending tests on exposed individuals could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$736,142End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no confirmed hantavirus case in the United States by May 15, driven by the disease's rarity—averaging 20–40 laboratory-confirmed hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases annually since 1993, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveillance, primarily from rodent exposure in western states—and the absence of any nationally reported 2026 domestic cases to date. A multi-country Andes virus (a hantavirus strain) cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, first noted May 2 with eight cases (six confirmed) and three deaths abroad as of May 8, has prompted CDC monitoring of returned U.S. passengers across multiple states, but no U.S. cases have been confirmed or suspected from this event, with public health risk assessed as extremely low. With just two days until resolution and no new endemic reports amid typical spring seasonality, traders anticipate surveillance updates will show no qualifying cases, though pending tests on exposed individuals could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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