Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 13°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on May 13, driven by the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast confirming a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent cloud cover, moderate rain, and thundery showers under a code yellow warning. Observational data from Schiphol shows peaks around 12°C so far, with frequent precipitation suppressing solar heating and preventing warmer readings, aligning with ECMWF model runs indicating cool northerly flow over the North Sea. This positions well below May climatological averages of 16°C due to ongoing spring instability. A realistic challenge would require an improbable prolonged sunbreak late afternoon for brief convective heating to 14°C, though radar indicates continued showers; final KNMI observations will resolve the market by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 13?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 13?
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$67,680 Vol.
$67,680 Vol.
May 13, 2026
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$67,680 Vol.
$67,680 Vol.
May 13, 2026
13°C
$13,474 Vol.
100%
14°C
$7,379 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$4,823 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$4,336 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 13°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on May 13, driven by the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast confirming a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent cloud cover, moderate rain, and thundery showers under a code yellow warning. Observational data from Schiphol shows peaks around 12°C so far, with frequent precipitation suppressing solar heating and preventing warmer readings, aligning with ECMWF model runs indicating cool northerly flow over the North Sea. This positions well below May climatological averages of 16°C due to ongoing spring instability. A realistic challenge would require an improbable prolonged sunbreak late afternoon for brief convective heating to 14°C, though radar indicates continued showers; final KNMI observations will resolve the market by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 1:14 AM ET
Volume
$67,680End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 1:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 13°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on May 13, driven by the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast confirming a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent cloud cover, moderate rain, and thundery showers under a code yellow warning. Observational data from Schiphol shows peaks around 12°C so far, with frequent precipitation suppressing solar heating and preventing warmer readings, aligning with ECMWF model runs indicating cool northerly flow over the North Sea. This positions well below May climatological averages of 16°C due to ongoing spring instability. A realistic challenge would require an improbable prolonged sunbreak late afternoon for brief convective heating to 14°C, though radar indicates continued showers; final KNMI observations will resolve the market by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67,680End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 1:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 13°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on May 13, driven by the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast confirming a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent cloud cover, moderate rain, and thundery showers under a code yellow warning. Observational data from Schiphol shows peaks around 12°C so far, with frequent precipitation suppressing solar heating and preventing warmer readings, aligning with ECMWF model runs indicating cool northerly flow over the North Sea. This positions well below May climatological averages of 16°C due to ongoing spring instability. A realistic challenge would require an improbable prolonged sunbreak late afternoon for brief convective heating to 14°C, though radar indicates continued showers; final KNMI observations will resolve the market by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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