Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF project Miami's nocturnal low on May 17 clustering around 74-81°F, mirroring the even trader sentiment across those bins with 78-79°F slightly favored at 25.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a persistent subtropical high pressure ridge over Florida, fostering warm moist air masses with dewpoints near 72°F that curb radiative cooling, alongside surrounding sea surface temperatures hovering around 80°F. Recent scattered showers through May 13 have sustained high humidity, elevating baseline lows above climatological May averages of 72°F. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover variability—lingering post-thunderstorm decks could push toward 80°F, while clearer conditions enable dips to 74°F—amid light southerly winds. Daily model updates through May 16 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official Miami International Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Miami on May 17?
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 25%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 25%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
31%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$15 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF project Miami's nocturnal low on May 17 clustering around 74-81°F, mirroring the even trader sentiment across those bins with 78-79°F slightly favored at 25.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a persistent subtropical high pressure ridge over Florida, fostering warm moist air masses with dewpoints near 72°F that curb radiative cooling, alongside surrounding sea surface temperatures hovering around 80°F. Recent scattered showers through May 13 have sustained high humidity, elevating baseline lows above climatological May averages of 72°F. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover variability—lingering post-thunderstorm decks could push toward 80°F, while clearer conditions enable dips to 74°F—amid light southerly winds. Daily model updates through May 16 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official Miami International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF project Miami's nocturnal low on May 17 clustering around 74-81°F, mirroring the even trader sentiment across those bins with 78-79°F slightly favored at 25.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a persistent subtropical high pressure ridge over Florida, fostering warm moist air masses with dewpoints near 72°F that curb radiative cooling, alongside surrounding sea surface temperatures hovering around 80°F. Recent scattered showers through May 13 have sustained high humidity, elevating baseline lows above climatological May averages of 72°F. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover variability—lingering post-thunderstorm decks could push toward 80°F, while clearer conditions enable dips to 74°F—amid light southerly winds. Daily model updates through May 16 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official Miami International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIALatest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF project Miami's nocturnal low on May 17 clustering around 74-81°F, mirroring the even trader sentiment across those bins with 78-79°F slightly favored at 25.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a persistent subtropical high pressure ridge over Florida, fostering warm moist air masses with dewpoints near 72°F that curb radiative cooling, alongside surrounding sea surface temperatures hovering around 80°F. Recent scattered showers through May 13 have sustained high humidity, elevating baseline lows above climatological May averages of 72°F. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover variability—lingering post-thunderstorm decks could push toward 80°F, while clearer conditions enable dips to 74°F—amid light southerly winds. Daily model updates through May 16 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official Miami International Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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