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icon for Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?

Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?

icon for Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?

Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 17

76-77°F 32%

78-79°F 28%

73°F or below 14.1%

80-81°F 10%

Polymarket
NEW

76-77°F 32%

78-79°F 28%

73°F or below 14.1%

80-81°F 10%

Polymarket
NEW

73°F or below

$35 Vol.

18%

74-75°F

$14 Vol.

21%

76-77°F

$9 Vol.

32%

78-79°F

$48 Vol.

30%

80-81°F

$15 Vol.

19%

82-83°F

$100 Vol.

3%

84-85°F

$158 Vol.

1%

86-87°F

$155 Vol.

1%

88-89°F

$472 Vol.

1%

90-91°F

$292 Vol.

<1%

92°F or higher

$390 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models project Miami's lowest temperature on May 16 around 76-79°F, reflecting trader consensus with 32% implied probability for 76-77°F and 30% for 78-79°F. This clustering stems from persistent southerly flow and high boundary layer moisture limiting radiational cooling overnight, alongside warm sea surface temperatures near 82°F off South Florida's coast. Differentiating factors include potential evening cloud cover variations and light winds, which could enhance cooling for the lower bin or trap heat for the higher; historical May climatology averages 74°F lows, but current patterns favor warmer outcomes. Monitor 12Z model runs today and NWS updates for refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,691
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models project Miami's lowest temperature on May 16 around 76-79°F, reflecting trader consensus with 32% implied probability for 76-77°F and 30% for 78-79°F. This clustering stems from persistent southerly flow and high boundary layer moisture limiting radiational cooling overnight, alongside warm sea surface temperatures near 82°F off South Florida's coast. Differentiating factors include potential evening cloud cover variations and light winds, which could enhance cooling for the lower bin or trap heat for the higher; historical May climatology averages 74°F lows, but current patterns favor warmer outcomes. Monitor 12Z model runs today and NWS updates for refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,691
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "76-77°F" at 33%, followed by "78-79°F" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?" is "76-77°F" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "78-79°F" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.