Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 14, aligning with forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance showing daytime highs clustering around 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This reflects typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitioning spring conditions, with recent days featuring similar mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s°C and no active fronts or heat domes in the past week. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from variable cloud cover reducing solar insolation, potential sea breeze moderation from the East China Sea, and Shanghai's urban heat island effect, which could push toward 26–27°C; new hourly observations and model updates through May 14 will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
25°C 38%
23°C 19.3%
26°C 18%
24°C 16%
NEW
$44,341 Vol.
NEW
$44,341 Vol.
May 14, 2026
22°C or below
8%
23°C
19%
24°C
16%
25°C
38%
26°C
18%
27°C
7%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 38%
23°C 19.3%
26°C 18%
24°C 16%
NEW
$44,341 Vol.
NEW
$44,341 Vol.
May 14, 2026
22°C or below
$6,968 Vol.
8%
23°C
$4,222 Vol.
19%
24°C
$2,925 Vol.
16%
25°C
$2,436 Vol.
38%
26°C
$2,782 Vol.
18%
27°C
$4,127 Vol.
7%
28°C
$5,896 Vol.
3%
29°C
$7,425 Vol.
1%
30°C
$4,240 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,322 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,021 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 14, aligning with forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance showing daytime highs clustering around 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This reflects typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitioning spring conditions, with recent days featuring similar mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s°C and no active fronts or heat domes in the past week. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from variable cloud cover reducing solar insolation, potential sea breeze moderation from the East China Sea, and Shanghai's urban heat island effect, which could push toward 26–27°C; new hourly observations and model updates through May 14 will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$44,341End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 14, aligning with forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance showing daytime highs clustering around 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This reflects typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitioning spring conditions, with recent days featuring similar mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s°C and no active fronts or heat domes in the past week. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from variable cloud cover reducing solar insolation, potential sea breeze moderation from the East China Sea, and Shanghai's urban heat island effect, which could push toward 26–27°C; new hourly observations and model updates through May 14 will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,341End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 14, aligning with forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance showing daytime highs clustering around 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This reflects typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitioning spring conditions, with recent days featuring similar mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s°C and no active fronts or heat domes in the past week. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from variable cloud cover reducing solar insolation, potential sea breeze moderation from the East China Sea, and Shanghai's urban heat island effect, which could push toward 26–27°C; new hourly observations and model updates through May 14 will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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