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Science predictions & odds

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

15%

December 31

$38M Vol.

$288K today

$2M Liq.

1,236

Ends in 8 months

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

96%

June 30

$2M Vol.

$63.8K today

$37.2K Liq.

49

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

52%

1st hottest

$85.5K Vol.

$50.7K Liq.

Ends in 27 days

New pandemic in 2026?

New pandemic in 2026?

13%

$370K Vol.

$42.1K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

25%

6

$19.1K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

6

Ends in 3 days

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

57%

2

$3M Vol.

$62.8K Liq.

21

Ends in 8 months

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

4%

$190K Vol.

$11.0K Liq.

7

Ends in 8 months

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

58%

0

$18.5K Vol.

$12.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

45%

1.15–1.19ºC

$20.9K Vol.

$24.6K Liq.

Ends in 27 days

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

87%

SpaceX

$2M Vol.

$85.5K Liq.

13

Ends in 8 months

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

88%

1900

$37.8K Vol.

$13.7K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

62%

2.0T+

$946K Vol.

$65.7K Liq.

8

Ends in over 1 year

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

7%

$800K Vol.

$25.0K Liq.

41

Ends in 8 months

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

17%

$153K Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

81%

8+

$2M Vol.

$2.8K Liq.

31

Ends in about 2 months

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

99%

↑2k

$8M Vol.

$18.1K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

16%

$564K Vol.

$2.7K Liq.

3

Ends in 8 months

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

6%

$601K Vol.

$15.0K Liq.

28

Ends in 8 months

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

63%

1250+

$71.7K Vol.

$5.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

34%

$300K Vol.

$2.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Science.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Science that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $58.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 14% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Science predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.