Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, reporting 43.5% text-only and up to 56% with tools on Humanity’s Last Exam, has anchored trader sentiment for the 2026 resolution. Earlier K2.6 and K2.5 releases posted comparable or slightly lower agentic scores, while open-weight availability has enabled community fine-tuning and expanded tool-use scaffolding. The benchmark’s 2,500 expert-sourced questions across disciplines have kept frontier progress incremental, with Anthropic’s Claude variants currently leading public leaderboards near 55–65% under varying conditions. Remaining catalysts include further Moonshot updates, agentic optimizations, and potential year-end releases before the December 31 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$58,203 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
81%
50%+
35%
55%+
20%
60%+
11%
65%+
5%
$58,203 Vol.
45%+
$14,679 Vol.
81%
50%+
$20,444 Vol.
35%
55%+
$11,550 Vol.
20%
60%+
$9,708 Vol.
11%
65%+
$1,822 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, reporting 43.5% text-only and up to 56% with tools on Humanity’s Last Exam, has anchored trader sentiment for the 2026 resolution. Earlier K2.6 and K2.5 releases posted comparable or slightly lower agentic scores, while open-weight availability has enabled community fine-tuning and expanded tool-use scaffolding. The benchmark’s 2,500 expert-sourced questions across disciplines have kept frontier progress incremental, with Anthropic’s Claude variants currently leading public leaderboards near 55–65% under varying conditions. Remaining catalysts include further Moonshot updates, agentic optimizations, and potential year-end releases before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$58,203End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, reporting 43.5% text-only and up to 56% with tools on Humanity’s Last Exam, has anchored trader sentiment for the 2026 resolution. Earlier K2.6 and K2.5 releases posted comparable or slightly lower agentic scores, while open-weight availability has enabled community fine-tuning and expanded tool-use scaffolding. The benchmark’s 2,500 expert-sourced questions across disciplines have kept frontier progress incremental, with Anthropic’s Claude variants currently leading public leaderboards near 55–65% under varying conditions. Remaining catalysts include further Moonshot updates, agentic optimizations, and potential year-end releases before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$58,203End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, reporting 43.5% text-only and up to 56% with tools on Humanity’s Last Exam, has anchored trader sentiment for the 2026 resolution. Earlier K2.6 and K2.5 releases posted comparable or slightly lower agentic scores, while open-weight availability has enabled community fine-tuning and expanded tool-use scaffolding. The benchmark’s 2,500 expert-sourced questions across disciplines have kept frontier progress incremental, with Anthropic’s Claude variants currently leading public leaderboards near 55–65% under varying conditions. Remaining catalysts include further Moonshot updates, agentic optimizations, and potential year-end releases before the December 31 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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