Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
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$504 Vol.
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$0 Vol.
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$206 Vol.
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$25 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$504End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$504End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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