Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.5%
$1,289,173 Vol.
$1,289,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.5%
$1,289,173 Vol.
$1,289,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$155,872 Vol.
73%
OpenAI
$122,532 Vol.
12%
$77,778 Vol.
10%
xAI
$106,721 Vol.
3%
Meta
$77,953 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$90,677 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$71,106 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$90,897 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74,894 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$83,836 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$69,511 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$71,810 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$61,229 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$67,744 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$66,612 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,289,173End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,289,173End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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