Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.7, drives the strong 71% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November. Its edge in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (82.8) and Google's Gemini variants reflects verified benchmark gains and frequent model updates from the lab. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's current frontier positioning and release cadence more heavily than competitors' announcements, though rapid iteration from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Alibaba could shift sentiment before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 67%
Alibaba 25%
MiniMax 25%
DeepSeek 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
71%
Alibaba
25%
MiniMax
25%
DeepSeek
23%
Z.ai
22%
Meituan
20%
Nvidia
20%
Tencent
19%
13%
Moonshot
12%
SpaceXAI
11%
OpenAI
10%
Meta
8%
StepFun
11%
Baidu
7%
Xiaomi
5%
Mistral
5%
Microsoft
5%
ByteDance
4%
Thinky
4%
Amazon
11%
Anthropic 67%
Alibaba 25%
MiniMax 25%
DeepSeek 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$127 Vol.
71%
Alibaba
$60 Vol.
25%
MiniMax
$50 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$50 Vol.
23%
Z.ai
$50 Vol.
22%
Meituan
$50 Vol.
20%
Nvidia
$77 Vol.
20%
Tencent
$50 Vol.
19%
$97 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$77 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$76 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$50 Vol.
10%
Meta
$72 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$83 Vol.
11%
Baidu
$76 Vol.
7%
Xiaomi
$77 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$64 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$76 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$77 Vol.
4%
Thinky
$115 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$120 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.7, drives the strong 71% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November. Its edge in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (82.8) and Google's Gemini variants reflects verified benchmark gains and frequent model updates from the lab. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's current frontier positioning and release cadence more heavily than competitors' announcements, though rapid iteration from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Alibaba could shift sentiment before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,569End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.7, drives the strong 71% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November. Its edge in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (82.8) and Google's Gemini variants reflects verified benchmark gains and frequent model updates from the lab. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's current frontier positioning and release cadence more heavily than competitors' announcements, though rapid iteration from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Alibaba could shift sentiment before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,569End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.7, drives the strong 71% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November. Its edge in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (82.8) and Google's Gemini variants reflects verified benchmark gains and frequent model updates from the lab. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's current frontier positioning and release cadence more heavily than competitors' announcements, though rapid iteration from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Alibaba could shift sentiment before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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