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World·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

icon for New pandemic in 2026?
World·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

7% chance
Polymarket

$1,006,936 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$1,006,936 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Strong trader consensus for no new pandemic in 2026, at a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the absence through mid-August of any novel pathogen achieving sustained global human-to-human transmission. Regional outbreaks, including the WHO-declared PHEIC for Bundibugyo Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, plus limited chikungunya, dengue, mpox clade Ib, and hantavirus clusters, have stayed geographically contained without exponential growth or reassortment per CDC and WHO surveillance. Enhanced post-COVID genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have reduced escalation risk. However, uncertainty remains around viral evolution in animal reservoirs or undetected zoonotic spillovers, such as H5N1 influenza changes enabling efficient transmission, that could accelerate international spread before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$1,006,936
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Strong trader consensus for no new pandemic in 2026, at a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the absence through mid-August of any novel pathogen achieving sustained global human-to-human transmission. Regional outbreaks, including the WHO-declared PHEIC for Bundibugyo Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, plus limited chikungunya, dengue, mpox clade Ib, and hantavirus clusters, have stayed geographically contained without exponential growth or reassortment per CDC and WHO surveillance. Enhanced post-COVID genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have reduced escalation risk. However, uncertainty remains around viral evolution in animal reservoirs or undetected zoonotic spillovers, such as H5N1 influenza changes enabling efficient transmission, that could accelerate international spread before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$1,006,936
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New pandemic in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New pandemic in 2026?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New pandemic in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "New pandemic in 2026?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "New pandemic in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.