Trader consensus implies an 88% probability of no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the World Health Organization's (WHO) lack of any pandemic declaration through mid-May, per official announcements—the market's sole resolution source. Recent hantavirus (Andes virus) cluster tied to the M/V Hondius cruise ship, reported May 2 with eight cases and three deaths across countries, was swiftly contained via isolation, as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assessments confirm primarily rodent-to-human transmission with negligible sustained human-to-human spread risk. Robust post-2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement surveillance has detected no novel pathogens meeting pandemic criteria—widespread transmission of a new agent—amid ongoing regional threats like H5N1 avian influenza and mpox clade Ib. Watch WHO Disease Outbreak News and CDC updates for late-year zoonotic signals.