Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader expectations, with no broad bill advancing through committee or floor votes in the 119th Congress despite multiple introductions on topics like frontier model audits, mandatory testing, and incident reporting. The administration has prioritized innovation through executive actions that explicitly avoid new licensing or pre-clearance requirements, while targeted measures such as the Take it Down Act address narrow issues like non-consensual deepfakes. States have enacted numerous transparency and chatbot rules, but efforts to preempt or unify these at the federal level have stalled amid partisan and industry opposition. With roughly 18 months remaining before 2027, the absence of scheduled floor action or bipartisan breakthroughs supports the current 84.5% implied probability against enactment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader expectations, with no broad bill advancing through committee or floor votes in the 119th Congress despite multiple introductions on topics like frontier model audits, mandatory testing, and incident reporting. The administration has prioritized innovation through executive actions that explicitly avoid new licensing or pre-clearance requirements, while targeted measures such as the Take it Down Act address narrow issues like non-consensual deepfakes. States have enacted numerous transparency and chatbot rules, but efforts to preempt or unify these at the federal level have stalled amid partisan and industry opposition. With roughly 18 months remaining before 2027, the absence of scheduled floor action or bipartisan breakthroughs supports the current 84.5% implied probability against enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader expectations, with no broad bill advancing through committee or floor votes in the 119th Congress despite multiple introductions on topics like frontier model audits, mandatory testing, and incident reporting. The administration has prioritized innovation through executive actions that explicitly avoid new licensing or pre-clearance requirements, while targeted measures such as the Take it Down Act address narrow issues like non-consensual deepfakes. States have enacted numerous transparency and chatbot rules, but efforts to preempt or unify these at the federal level have stalled amid partisan and industry opposition. With roughly 18 months remaining before 2027, the absence of scheduled floor action or bipartisan breakthroughs supports the current 84.5% implied probability against enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader expectations, with no broad bill advancing through committee or floor votes in the 119th Congress despite multiple introductions on topics like frontier model audits, mandatory testing, and incident reporting. The administration has prioritized innovation through executive actions that explicitly avoid new licensing or pre-clearance requirements, while targeted measures such as the Take it Down Act address narrow issues like non-consensual deepfakes. States have enacted numerous transparency and chatbot rules, but efforts to preempt or unify these at the federal level have stalled amid partisan and industry opposition. With roughly 18 months remaining before 2027, the absence of scheduled floor action or bipartisan breakthroughs supports the current 84.5% implied probability against enactment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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