Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$98,173End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$98,173End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions