Anthropic’s Claude lineup, anchored by the June release of Mythos-class Fable 5 and the July 24 launch of Opus 5, underpins the 100% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of August 2026. These models lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5, SWE-bench Pro/Verified, and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with superior scores on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge-work tasks that outpace OpenAI and Google offerings. Traders cite consistent frontier performance across verified evaluations and competitive pricing as the decisive factors. A late-month surprise release from a rival that surpasses these scores on arena.ai or similar leaderboards could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$3,266,863 Vol.
$3,266,863 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
Yes
Meta
No
No
Alibaba
No
Moonshot
No
OpenAI
No
Baidu
No
Z.ai
No
Xiaomi
No
SpaceXAI
No
DeepSeek
No
Amazon
No
Bytedance
No
Nvidia
No
Thinky
No
MiniMax
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Tencent
No
StepFun
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$3,266,863 Vol.
$3,266,863 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$526,709 Vol.
Yes
Meta
$187,472 Vol.
No
$254,942 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$166,773 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$119,985 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$253,449 Vol.
No
Baidu
$35,032 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$238,039 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$50,863 Vol.
No
SpaceXAI
$222,111 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$300,795 Vol.
No
Amazon
$19,778 Vol.
No
Bytedance
$675,514 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$22,115 Vol.
No
Thinky
$24,084 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$38,168 Vol.
No
Mistral
$25,351 Vol.
No
Meituan
$23,803 Vol.
No
Tencent
$14,363 Vol.
No
StepFun
$24,993 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$42,524 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude lineup, anchored by the June release of Mythos-class Fable 5 and the July 24 launch of Opus 5, underpins the 100% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of August 2026. These models lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5, SWE-bench Pro/Verified, and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with superior scores on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge-work tasks that outpace OpenAI and Google offerings. Traders cite consistent frontier performance across verified evaluations and competitive pricing as the decisive factors. A late-month surprise release from a rival that surpasses these scores on arena.ai or similar leaderboards could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,266,863End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude lineup, anchored by the June release of Mythos-class Fable 5 and the July 24 launch of Opus 5, underpins the 100% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of August 2026. These models lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5, SWE-bench Pro/Verified, and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with superior scores on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge-work tasks that outpace OpenAI and Google offerings. Traders cite consistent frontier performance across verified evaluations and competitive pricing as the decisive factors. A late-month surprise release from a rival that surpasses these scores on arena.ai or similar leaderboards could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,266,863End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Anthropic’s Claude lineup, anchored by the June release of Mythos-class Fable 5 and the July 24 launch of Opus 5, underpins the 100% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of August 2026. These models lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5, SWE-bench Pro/Verified, and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with superior scores on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge-work tasks that outpace OpenAI and Google offerings. Traders cite consistent frontier performance across verified evaluations and competitive pricing as the decisive factors. A late-month surprise release from a rival that surpasses these scores on arena.ai or similar leaderboards could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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