Anthropic's frequent Opus cadence, including the July 24 release of Opus 5 and September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, combined with unconfirmed rumors of an Opus 5.2 variant this week or by month-end, drives the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around September 22–29. Traders weigh the lab's history of 3–6 week intervals between major updates against the absence of official announcements or system cards, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model timelines adds uncertainty. Recent platform integrations and safety-focused updates have not yet signaled a new flagship Opus, leaving resolution dependent on any imminent benchmark leaks or API identifiers that could shift the current 82% implied chance of a release near September 24.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 25 16%
September 24 14%
September 30 14%
No release by September 30 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
3%
September 18
6%
September 19
1%
September 20
5%
September 21
9%
September 22
9%
September 23
9%
September 24
14%
September 25
16%
September 26
3%
September 27
3%
September 28
7%
September 29
7%
September 30
14%
No release by September 30
12%
September 25 16%
September 24 14%
September 30 14%
No release by September 30 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
$478 Vol.
3%
September 18
$39 Vol.
6%
September 19
$486 Vol.
1%
September 20
$507 Vol.
5%
September 21
$39 Vol.
9%
September 22
$39 Vol.
9%
September 23
$58 Vol.
9%
September 24
$119 Vol.
14%
September 25
$60 Vol.
16%
September 26
$486 Vol.
3%
September 27
$486 Vol.
3%
September 28
$58 Vol.
7%
September 29
$102 Vol.
7%
September 30
$139 Vol.
14%
No release by September 30
$139 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's frequent Opus cadence, including the July 24 release of Opus 5 and September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, combined with unconfirmed rumors of an Opus 5.2 variant this week or by month-end, drives the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around September 22–29. Traders weigh the lab's history of 3–6 week intervals between major updates against the absence of official announcements or system cards, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model timelines adds uncertainty. Recent platform integrations and safety-focused updates have not yet signaled a new flagship Opus, leaving resolution dependent on any imminent benchmark leaks or API identifiers that could shift the current 82% implied chance of a release near September 24.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,387End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's frequent Opus cadence, including the July 24 release of Opus 5 and September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, combined with unconfirmed rumors of an Opus 5.2 variant this week or by month-end, drives the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around September 22–29. Traders weigh the lab's history of 3–6 week intervals between major updates against the absence of official announcements or system cards, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model timelines adds uncertainty. Recent platform integrations and safety-focused updates have not yet signaled a new flagship Opus, leaving resolution dependent on any imminent benchmark leaks or API identifiers that could shift the current 82% implied chance of a release near September 24.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,387End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's frequent Opus cadence, including the July 24 release of Opus 5 and September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, combined with unconfirmed rumors of an Opus 5.2 variant this week or by month-end, drives the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around September 22–29. Traders weigh the lab's history of 3–6 week intervals between major updates against the absence of official announcements or system cards, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model timelines adds uncertainty. Recent platform integrations and safety-focused updates have not yet signaled a new flagship Opus, leaving resolution dependent on any imminent benchmark leaks or API identifiers that could shift the current 82% implied chance of a release near September 24.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions