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Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

icon for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Aug 31

Sep 30

No release by September 30 32%

September 9 18%

September 22 10%

September 24 10%

Polymarket
NEW

No release by September 30 32%

September 9 18%

September 22 10%

September 24 10%

Polymarket
NEW

On or prior to September 1

$62 Vol.

8%

September 2

$58 Vol.

10%

September 3

$58 Vol.

7%

September 4

$58 Vol.

9%

September 5

$58 Vol.

10%

September 6

$58 Vol.

9%

September 7

$58 Vol.

10%

September 8

$58 Vol.

10%

September 9

$58 Vol.

18%

September 10

$58 Vol.

1%

September 11

$58 Vol.

9%

September 12

$58 Vol.

10%

September 13

$58 Vol.

1%

September 14

$58 Vol.

9%

September 15

$58 Vol.

9%

September 16

$58 Vol.

9%

September 17

$58 Vol.

7%

September 18

$58 Vol.

7%

September 19

$58 Vol.

6%

September 20

$58 Vol.

11%

September 21

$58 Vol.

6%

September 22

$58 Vol.

10%

September 23

$58 Vol.

8%

September 24

$58 Vol.

10%

September 25

$58 Vol.

9%

September 26

$58 Vol.

6%

September 27

$58 Vol.

7%

September 28

$58 Vol.

10%

September 29

$58 Vol.

8%

September 30

$58 Vol.

5%

No release by September 30

$94 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model—originally targeted for June then July 2026—remain the core driver behind the fragmented September release probabilities and 32.5% chance of no launch by month-end. Internal performance shortfalls prompted extended partner testing and tweaks after the July 21 rollout of lighter variants such as 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, while training has already begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google DeepMind’s history of conservative timelines against competitive benchmarks and potential last-minute announcements, producing a wide distribution of implied odds across early-to-late September dates that reflect persistent uncertainty over when the full reasoning-focused Pro model will reach public API and app availability.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,842
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model—originally targeted for June then July 2026—remain the core driver behind the fragmented September release probabilities and 32.5% chance of no launch by month-end. Internal performance shortfalls prompted extended partner testing and tweaks after the July 21 rollout of lighter variants such as 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, while training has already begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google DeepMind’s history of conservative timelines against competitive benchmarks and potential last-minute announcements, producing a wide distribution of implied odds across early-to-late September dates that reflect persistent uncertainty over when the full reasoning-focused Pro model will reach public API and app availability.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,842
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No release by September 30" at 33%, followed by "September 20" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is "No release by September 30" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 20" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.