Anthropic holds a leading 60.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through end-October 2026 because its recent Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants post the highest verified scores in coding and agentic coding subtasks on the latest LiveBench release. These models deliver consistent edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants, which trail at 29% amid slower recent gains on contamination-resistant benchmarks. Strong results on related evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified further reinforce trader consensus around Anthropic’s focused coding capabilities. OpenAI remains the clearest challenger if it ships a major update before the October snapshot, while lower-priced Chinese models like DeepSeek and MiniMax sit well behind at single-digit odds. No new frontier releases have closed the gap in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 62%
OpenAI 29%
Xiaomi 6.9%
Tencent 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
62%
OpenAI
29%
Xiaomi
7%
Tencent
4%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Nvidia
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
2%
MiniMax
2%
2%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 62%
OpenAI 29%
Xiaomi 6.9%
Tencent 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,092 Vol.
62%
OpenAI
$435 Vol.
29%
Xiaomi
$132 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$103 Vol.
4%
Meta
$130 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$83 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$149 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$135 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$149 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$134 Vol.
2%
$108 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$114 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$144 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$83 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$156 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$108 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$121 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$116 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$103 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$103 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a leading 60.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through end-October 2026 because its recent Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants post the highest verified scores in coding and agentic coding subtasks on the latest LiveBench release. These models deliver consistent edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants, which trail at 29% amid slower recent gains on contamination-resistant benchmarks. Strong results on related evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified further reinforce trader consensus around Anthropic’s focused coding capabilities. OpenAI remains the clearest challenger if it ships a major update before the October snapshot, while lower-priced Chinese models like DeepSeek and MiniMax sit well behind at single-digit odds. No new frontier releases have closed the gap in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$3,815End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a leading 60.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through end-October 2026 because its recent Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants post the highest verified scores in coding and agentic coding subtasks on the latest LiveBench release. These models deliver consistent edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants, which trail at 29% amid slower recent gains on contamination-resistant benchmarks. Strong results on related evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified further reinforce trader consensus around Anthropic’s focused coding capabilities. OpenAI remains the clearest challenger if it ships a major update before the October snapshot, while lower-priced Chinese models like DeepSeek and MiniMax sit well behind at single-digit odds. No new frontier releases have closed the gap in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,815End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a leading 60.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through end-October 2026 because its recent Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants post the highest verified scores in coding and agentic coding subtasks on the latest LiveBench release. These models deliver consistent edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants, which trail at 29% amid slower recent gains on contamination-resistant benchmarks. Strong results on related evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified further reinforce trader consensus around Anthropic’s focused coding capabilities. OpenAI remains the clearest challenger if it ships a major update before the October snapshot, while lower-priced Chinese models like DeepSeek and MiniMax sit well behind at single-digit odds. No new frontier releases have closed the gap in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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