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icon for Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

icon for Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Sep 30

Oct 31

Dec 1

Dec 31

Sep 30

Oct 31

Dec 1

Dec 31

Anthropic 98.7%

OpenAI <1%

Google <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,724,356 Vol.

Anthropic 98.7%

OpenAI <1%

Google <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,724,356 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$840,802 Vol.

99%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$698,349 Vol.

1%

icon for Google

Google

$334,051 Vol.

1%

icon for Meta

Meta

$417,195 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$179,449 Vol.

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$83,811 Vol.

<1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$65,015 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$139,721 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$34,848 Vol.

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$348,820 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$182,177 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$28,749 Vol.

<1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$88,965 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$39,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$15,148 Vol.

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$34,406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$36,341 Vol.

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$19,597 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$71,085 Vol.

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$22,501 Vol.

<1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$44,694 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with a 1M-token context window and strong results on Terminal-Bench, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and coding-agent evaluations, anchors trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability for the best model by end of September. Its performance edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and other frontier releases stems from superior knowledge-work and agentic benchmarks, reinforced by Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet variants maintaining competitive pricing and capabilities. With only days remaining until resolution, no credible last-minute challenger has emerged. A surprise competitive launch or benchmark revision could still shift sentiment, though the current gap and timeline make such disruption unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,724,356
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with a 1M-token context window and strong results on Terminal-Bench, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and coding-agent evaluations, anchors trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability for the best model by end of September. Its performance edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and other frontier releases stems from superior knowledge-work and agentic benchmarks, reinforced by Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet variants maintaining competitive pricing and capabilities. With only days remaining until resolution, no credible last-minute challenger has emerged. A surprise competitive launch or benchmark revision could still shift sentiment, though the current gap and timeline make such disruption unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,724,356
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model end of September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 99%, followed by "OpenAI" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the best AI model end of September?" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model end of September?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model end of September?" is "Anthropic" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model end of September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.