Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 84%
Google 7%
ByteDance 4.8%
Mistral 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
84%
7%
ByteDance
5%
Mistral
4%
Amazon
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Tencent
4%
Baidu
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
MiniMax
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic 84%
Google 7%
ByteDance 4.8%
Mistral 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$629 Vol.
84%
$218 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$218 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$218 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$148 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$218 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$218 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$316 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$218 Vol.
3%
Meta
$171 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$148 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$148 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$148 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$211 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$148 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$148 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$148 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$148 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$132 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$94 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$132 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$4,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$4,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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