OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (Max) recently topped the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a score of roughly 1,800 after its early September launch, establishing a 35-point lead over Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and widening the gap on agentic frontend tasks that test multi-step reasoning and tool use. This performance on the community-driven Elo-style benchmark, backed by hundreds of thousands of votes, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds for OpenAI, while Anthropic holds second at 20% on the strength of its prior Claude models. Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail with lower scores and minimal implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent gains in web-development-specific evaluations. With resolution approaching at month-end, fresh leaderboard updates could still shift sentiment if additional votes narrow the frontier gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 79.2%
Anthropic 20%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
$148,872 Vol.
$148,872 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
79%
Anthropic
20%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 79.2%
Anthropic 20%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
$148,872 Vol.
$148,872 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$29,045 Vol.
79%
Anthropic
$61,821 Vol.
20%
$6,343 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$20,288 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,137 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$8,558 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (Max) recently topped the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a score of roughly 1,800 after its early September launch, establishing a 35-point lead over Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and widening the gap on agentic frontend tasks that test multi-step reasoning and tool use. This performance on the community-driven Elo-style benchmark, backed by hundreds of thousands of votes, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds for OpenAI, while Anthropic holds second at 20% on the strength of its prior Claude models. Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail with lower scores and minimal implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent gains in web-development-specific evaluations. With resolution approaching at month-end, fresh leaderboard updates could still shift sentiment if additional votes narrow the frontier gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$148,872End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (Max) recently topped the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a score of roughly 1,800 after its early September launch, establishing a 35-point lead over Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and widening the gap on agentic frontend tasks that test multi-step reasoning and tool use. This performance on the community-driven Elo-style benchmark, backed by hundreds of thousands of votes, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds for OpenAI, while Anthropic holds second at 20% on the strength of its prior Claude models. Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail with lower scores and minimal implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent gains in web-development-specific evaluations. With resolution approaching at month-end, fresh leaderboard updates could still shift sentiment if additional votes narrow the frontier gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$148,872End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (Max) recently topped the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a score of roughly 1,800 after its early September launch, establishing a 35-point lead over Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and widening the gap on agentic frontend tasks that test multi-step reasoning and tool use. This performance on the community-driven Elo-style benchmark, backed by hundreds of thousands of votes, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds for OpenAI, while Anthropic holds second at 20% on the strength of its prior Claude models. Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail with lower scores and minimal implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent gains in web-development-specific evaluations. With resolution approaching at month-end, fresh leaderboard updates could still shift sentiment if additional votes narrow the frontier gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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