Trader sentiment on the third-best AI agent lab by end of November shows tight clustering around 22-28% for Moonshot, Z.ai, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, signaling high uncertainty amid rapid industry progress. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agent capabilities in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion rather than raw model scale alone. Recent model releases, benchmark gains on agentic evaluations, and ecosystem integrations have kept several labs in contention, while smaller players like DeepSeek and Mistral trail due to narrower deployment footprints. Key swing factors include upcoming capability updates, regulatory clarity on AI deployment, and developer adoption trends that could reshape rankings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 29%
SpaceXAI 19%
Microsoft 17%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
29%
SpaceXAI
19%
Microsoft
17%
OpenAI
14%
Alibaba
11%
Xiaomi
11%
ByteDance
11%
Meituan
11%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Mistral
11%
Baidu
9%
Anthropic
13%
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Nvidia
8%
Amazon
8%
Tencent
8%
MiniMax
9%
Moonshot 29%
SpaceXAI 19%
Microsoft 17%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
$40 Vol.
29%
SpaceXAI
$40 Vol.
19%
Microsoft
$26 Vol.
17%
OpenAI
$20 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$20 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$20 Vol.
11%
ByteDance
$20 Vol.
11%
Meituan
$20 Vol.
11%
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
11%
Meta
$20 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$20 Vol.
11%
Baidu
$20 Vol.
9%
Anthropic
$34 Vol.
13%
$20 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$20 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$20 Vol.
8%
Tencent
$20 Vol.
8%
MiniMax
$40 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the third-best AI agent lab by end of November shows tight clustering around 22-28% for Moonshot, Z.ai, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, signaling high uncertainty amid rapid industry progress. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agent capabilities in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion rather than raw model scale alone. Recent model releases, benchmark gains on agentic evaluations, and ecosystem integrations have kept several labs in contention, while smaller players like DeepSeek and Mistral trail due to narrower deployment footprints. Key swing factors include upcoming capability updates, regulatory clarity on AI deployment, and developer adoption trends that could reshape rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$460End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the third-best AI agent lab by end of November shows tight clustering around 22-28% for Moonshot, Z.ai, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, signaling high uncertainty amid rapid industry progress. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agent capabilities in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion rather than raw model scale alone. Recent model releases, benchmark gains on agentic evaluations, and ecosystem integrations have kept several labs in contention, while smaller players like DeepSeek and Mistral trail due to narrower deployment footprints. Key swing factors include upcoming capability updates, regulatory clarity on AI deployment, and developer adoption trends that could reshape rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$460End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the third-best AI agent lab by end of November shows tight clustering around 22-28% for Moonshot, Z.ai, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, signaling high uncertainty amid rapid industry progress. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agent capabilities in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion rather than raw model scale alone. Recent model releases, benchmark gains on agentic evaluations, and ecosystem integrations have kept several labs in contention, while smaller players like DeepSeek and Mistral trail due to narrower deployment footprints. Key swing factors include upcoming capability updates, regulatory clarity on AI deployment, and developer adoption trends that could reshape rankings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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