Recent model releases from multiple labs have tightened the race for third place on LM Arena's text leaderboard with style control enabled, leaving no single frontrunner above roughly 33% implied probability. OpenAI's September testing of a Writing Style feature that pulls user tone from connected apps like Gmail and Slack, alongside Anthropic's ongoing Claude refinements, Google's Gemini scaling, and Meta's Muse Spark updates, highlight how controllable generation capabilities directly influence arena scores. Chinese labs including Meituan, DeepSeek, and Moonshot add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that close gaps in reasoning and cost. Traders view the fragmented odds as reflecting narrow benchmark margins and the potential for any lab's November launch to reorder the top ranks before the November 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 30%
Meta 26%
Alibaba 13.1%
OpenAI 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
30%
Meta
26%
Alibaba
13%
OpenAI
13%
Tencent
10%
Anthropic
10%
Meituan
5%
Thinky
5%
Amazon
5%
Z.ai
5%
StepFun
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
4%
Xiaomi
4%
SpaceXAI
2%
ByteDance
2%
Moonshot
12%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Google 30%
Meta 26%
Alibaba 13.1%
OpenAI 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
$635 Vol.
30%
Meta
$818 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$178 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$190 Vol.
13%
Tencent
$446 Vol.
10%
Anthropic
$164 Vol.
10%
Meituan
$457 Vol.
5%
Thinky
$175 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$150 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$150 Vol.
5%
StepFun
$150 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$150 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$141 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$150 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$198 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$139 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$150 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$150 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$150 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$150 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$150 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from multiple labs have tightened the race for third place on LM Arena's text leaderboard with style control enabled, leaving no single frontrunner above roughly 33% implied probability. OpenAI's September testing of a Writing Style feature that pulls user tone from connected apps like Gmail and Slack, alongside Anthropic's ongoing Claude refinements, Google's Gemini scaling, and Meta's Muse Spark updates, highlight how controllable generation capabilities directly influence arena scores. Chinese labs including Meituan, DeepSeek, and Moonshot add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that close gaps in reasoning and cost. Traders view the fragmented odds as reflecting narrow benchmark margins and the potential for any lab's November launch to reorder the top ranks before the November 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$5,044End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from multiple labs have tightened the race for third place on LM Arena's text leaderboard with style control enabled, leaving no single frontrunner above roughly 33% implied probability. OpenAI's September testing of a Writing Style feature that pulls user tone from connected apps like Gmail and Slack, alongside Anthropic's ongoing Claude refinements, Google's Gemini scaling, and Meta's Muse Spark updates, highlight how controllable generation capabilities directly influence arena scores. Chinese labs including Meituan, DeepSeek, and Moonshot add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that close gaps in reasoning and cost. Traders view the fragmented odds as reflecting narrow benchmark margins and the potential for any lab's November launch to reorder the top ranks before the November 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,044End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases from multiple labs have tightened the race for third place on LM Arena's text leaderboard with style control enabled, leaving no single frontrunner above roughly 33% implied probability. OpenAI's September testing of a Writing Style feature that pulls user tone from connected apps like Gmail and Slack, alongside Anthropic's ongoing Claude refinements, Google's Gemini scaling, and Meta's Muse Spark updates, highlight how controllable generation capabilities directly influence arena scores. Chinese labs including Meituan, DeepSeek, and Moonshot add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that close gaps in reasoning and cost. Traders view the fragmented odds as reflecting narrow benchmark margins and the potential for any lab's November launch to reorder the top ranks before the November 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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