OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent signals of a possible 2027 debut have left market-implied odds widely dispersed across valuation buckets, with the 1.5T+ tranche commanding the highest probability at 32.6%. Trader sentiment reflects the tension between rapid revenue expansion—annualized run rate near $25 billion with enterprise now exceeding 40%—and persistent heavy losses exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 alone amid elevated compute commitments. The latest private valuation of $852 billion sets a high bar, yet sustaining multiples above 30–40x run-rate revenue will depend on margin improvement, competitive differentiation from Anthropic and hyperscalers, and broader risk appetite for unprofitable growth names. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 details or revised timing guidance that could shift consensus on achievable post-IPO capitalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 32.6%
1T–1.25T 20.5%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
750B–1T 12%
$84,158 Vol.
$84,158 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
12%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
18%
1.5T+
33%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 32.6%
1T–1.25T 20.5%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
750B–1T 12%
$84,158 Vol.
$84,158 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$6,079 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,096 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$8,975 Vol.
12%
1T–1.25T
$13,974 Vol.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$7,763 Vol.
18%
1.5T+
$20,040 Vol.
33%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,231 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent signals of a possible 2027 debut have left market-implied odds widely dispersed across valuation buckets, with the 1.5T+ tranche commanding the highest probability at 32.6%. Trader sentiment reflects the tension between rapid revenue expansion—annualized run rate near $25 billion with enterprise now exceeding 40%—and persistent heavy losses exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 alone amid elevated compute commitments. The latest private valuation of $852 billion sets a high bar, yet sustaining multiples above 30–40x run-rate revenue will depend on margin improvement, competitive differentiation from Anthropic and hyperscalers, and broader risk appetite for unprofitable growth names. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 details or revised timing guidance that could shift consensus on achievable post-IPO capitalization.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$84,158End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent signals of a possible 2027 debut have left market-implied odds widely dispersed across valuation buckets, with the 1.5T+ tranche commanding the highest probability at 32.6%. Trader sentiment reflects the tension between rapid revenue expansion—annualized run rate near $25 billion with enterprise now exceeding 40%—and persistent heavy losses exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 alone amid elevated compute commitments. The latest private valuation of $852 billion sets a high bar, yet sustaining multiples above 30–40x run-rate revenue will depend on margin improvement, competitive differentiation from Anthropic and hyperscalers, and broader risk appetite for unprofitable growth names. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 details or revised timing guidance that could shift consensus on achievable post-IPO capitalization.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$84,158End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent signals of a possible 2027 debut have left market-implied odds widely dispersed across valuation buckets, with the 1.5T+ tranche commanding the highest probability at 32.6%. Trader sentiment reflects the tension between rapid revenue expansion—annualized run rate near $25 billion with enterprise now exceeding 40%—and persistent heavy losses exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 alone amid elevated compute commitments. The latest private valuation of $852 billion sets a high bar, yet sustaining multiples above 30–40x run-rate revenue will depend on margin improvement, competitive differentiation from Anthropic and hyperscalers, and broader risk appetite for unprofitable growth names. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 details or revised timing guidance that could shift consensus on achievable post-IPO capitalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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