OpenAI’s rapid revenue expansion to more than $40 billion annualized, combined with ongoing discussions of a new financing round targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation, anchors trader consensus around a 1.5T-plus IPO closing market cap at 60.9% implied probability. The company’s March 2026 private round at $852 billion, confidential S-1 filing in June, and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion floor have shifted the timeline toward 2027, lifting the “no IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome to 22.4%. Persistent operating losses, competitive intensity from Anthropic, and post-SpaceX market volatility introduce uncertainty, though accelerating user growth and institutional demand for AI assets continue to support elevated multiples if the debut occurs.