Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting reduced urgency after the company's record $122 billion funding round closed in late March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—its largest ever, backed by SoftBank, NVIDIA, and others. This influx of private capital eases liquidity needs amid soaring AI compute costs projected at $121 billion for 2028, while OpenAI's nonprofit-to-capped-profit structure complicates a traditional listing. Despite CFO Sarah Friar's April 8 remarks on reserving shares for retail investors and informal Wall Street talks for a potential Q4 2026 debut, internal leadership disagreements temper optimism. Upper-tier outcomes like 1.5T+ at 29.1% embed aggressive growth from $2 billion monthly revenue trends, with H2 2026 regulatory filings as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 49%
1.5T+ 31.9%
500–750B 11%
750B–1T 10%
$16,307 Vol.
$16,307 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
9%
500–750B
11%
750B–1T
16%
1T–1.25T
16%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
32%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
49%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 49%
1.5T+ 31.9%
500–750B 11%
750B–1T 10%
$16,307 Vol.
$16,307 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$149 Vol.
9%
500–750B
$287 Vol.
11%
750B–1T
$389 Vol.
16%
1T–1.25T
$3,197 Vol.
16%
1.25T–1.5T
$478 Vol.
11%
1.5T+
$311 Vol.
32%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$11,496 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting reduced urgency after the company's record $122 billion funding round closed in late March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—its largest ever, backed by SoftBank, NVIDIA, and others. This influx of private capital eases liquidity needs amid soaring AI compute costs projected at $121 billion for 2028, while OpenAI's nonprofit-to-capped-profit structure complicates a traditional listing. Despite CFO Sarah Friar's April 8 remarks on reserving shares for retail investors and informal Wall Street talks for a potential Q4 2026 debut, internal leadership disagreements temper optimism. Upper-tier outcomes like 1.5T+ at 29.1% embed aggressive growth from $2 billion monthly revenue trends, with H2 2026 regulatory filings as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$16,307End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting reduced urgency after the company's record $122 billion funding round closed in late March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—its largest ever, backed by SoftBank, NVIDIA, and others. This influx of private capital eases liquidity needs amid soaring AI compute costs projected at $121 billion for 2028, while OpenAI's nonprofit-to-capped-profit structure complicates a traditional listing. Despite CFO Sarah Friar's April 8 remarks on reserving shares for retail investors and informal Wall Street talks for a potential Q4 2026 debut, internal leadership disagreements temper optimism. Upper-tier outcomes like 1.5T+ at 29.1% embed aggressive growth from $2 billion monthly revenue trends, with H2 2026 regulatory filings as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$16,307End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting reduced urgency after the company's record $122 billion funding round closed in late March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—its largest ever, backed by SoftBank, NVIDIA, and others. This influx of private capital eases liquidity needs amid soaring AI compute costs projected at $121 billion for 2028, while OpenAI's nonprofit-to-capped-profit structure complicates a traditional listing. Despite CFO Sarah Friar's April 8 remarks on reserving shares for retail investors and informal Wall Street talks for a potential Q4 2026 debut, internal leadership disagreements temper optimism. Upper-tier outcomes like 1.5T+ at 29.1% embed aggressive growth from $2 billion monthly revenue trends, with H2 2026 regulatory filings as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions