Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, with a 72% implied probability on "No IPO," driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's late-2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid revenue shortfalls and projected $121 billion annual compute costs by 2028. A fresh letter from 10 Republican attorneys general to the SEC today demands rigorous scrutiny of any filing, compounding regulatory headwinds from Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit alleging undisclosed conflicts in deals like the $20 billion Cerebras commitment. Despite a blockbuster $122 billion funding round in March valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money and employee tender offers signaling hype for trillion-dollar public debuts, massive cash burn and unproven profitability have traders betting on delays into 2027, with high-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at just 10.5% amid valuation compression risks. Watch for S-1 filings or Q2 revenue disclosures as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2026 72%
1.5T+ 10.6%
1.25T–1.5T 3.4%
500–750B 3.2%
$1,637,908 Vol.
$1,637,908 Vol.
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
2%
1.25T–1.5T
3%
1.5T+
11%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
72%
No IPO by December 31, 2026 72%
1.5T+ 10.6%
1.25T–1.5T 3.4%
500–750B 3.2%
$1,637,908 Vol.
$1,637,908 Vol.
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
2%
1.25T–1.5T
3%
1.5T+
11%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
72%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, with a 72% implied probability on "No IPO," driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's late-2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid revenue shortfalls and projected $121 billion annual compute costs by 2028. A fresh letter from 10 Republican attorneys general to the SEC today demands rigorous scrutiny of any filing, compounding regulatory headwinds from Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit alleging undisclosed conflicts in deals like the $20 billion Cerebras commitment. Despite a blockbuster $122 billion funding round in March valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money and employee tender offers signaling hype for trillion-dollar public debuts, massive cash burn and unproven profitability have traders betting on delays into 2027, with high-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at just 10.5% amid valuation compression risks. Watch for S-1 filings or Q2 revenue disclosures as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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