OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September 2026 statement that a 2026 listing would be ill-advised amid AI safety priorities have anchored trader consensus at a 96.5% probability of no IPO by year-end. The company’s $852 billion March 2026 private valuation, ongoing heavy compute investments, projected multi-billion-dollar losses, and caution after volatile debuts like SpaceX have reinforced the view that executives will defer until 2027 to target closer to $1 trillion. While this positioning reflects aggregated capital at risk, an unexpected acceleration in regulatory clarity on AI alignment or a sharp rebound in tech sentiment could still compress the timeline.