Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for SpaceX's IPO valuation falling in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, closely tracking recent secondary market trading at around $1.54 trillion on Nasdaq Private Market and reports of a targeted $1.75-2 trillion for the anticipated June 2026 listing. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in April, an xAI merger valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion in February, and Starlink's revenue surge toward $20 billion annually amid launch cadence records. The adjacent $2.00-2.25 trillion bucket at 29.5% reflects optimism around imminent prospectus filing next week and the May 19 Starship V3 test flight, though execution risks and prospectus disclosures on AI integration and Starship capex could pressure multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.75-2.00T 61%
2.00-2.25T 30%
2.25-2.50T 7.7%
2.50T+ 6.8%
$133,285 Vol.
$133,285 Vol.
<1.25T
1%
1.25-1.50T
4%
1.50-1.75T
21%
1.75-2.00T
61%
2.00-2.25T
30%
2.25-2.50T
8%
2.50T+
7%
1.75-2.00T 61%
2.00-2.25T 30%
2.25-2.50T 7.7%
2.50T+ 6.8%
$133,285 Vol.
$133,285 Vol.
<1.25T
$60,323 Vol.
1%
1.25-1.50T
$16,039 Vol.
4%
1.50-1.75T
$9,240 Vol.
21%
1.75-2.00T
$12,910 Vol.
61%
2.00-2.25T
$13,938 Vol.
30%
2.25-2.50T
$10,055 Vol.
8%
2.50T+
$10,779 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for SpaceX's IPO valuation falling in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, closely tracking recent secondary market trading at around $1.54 trillion on Nasdaq Private Market and reports of a targeted $1.75-2 trillion for the anticipated June 2026 listing. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in April, an xAI merger valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion in February, and Starlink's revenue surge toward $20 billion annually amid launch cadence records. The adjacent $2.00-2.25 trillion bucket at 29.5% reflects optimism around imminent prospectus filing next week and the May 19 Starship V3 test flight, though execution risks and prospectus disclosures on AI integration and Starship capex could pressure multiples.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$133,285Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for SpaceX's IPO valuation falling in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, closely tracking recent secondary market trading at around $1.54 trillion on Nasdaq Private Market and reports of a targeted $1.75-2 trillion for the anticipated June 2026 listing. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in April, an xAI merger valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion in February, and Starlink's revenue surge toward $20 billion annually amid launch cadence records. The adjacent $2.00-2.25 trillion bucket at 29.5% reflects optimism around imminent prospectus filing next week and the May 19 Starship V3 test flight, though execution risks and prospectus disclosures on AI integration and Starship capex could pressure multiples.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,285Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for SpaceX's IPO valuation falling in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, closely tracking recent secondary market trading at around $1.54 trillion on Nasdaq Private Market and reports of a targeted $1.75-2 trillion for the anticipated June 2026 listing. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in April, an xAI merger valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion in February, and Starlink's revenue surge toward $20 billion annually amid launch cadence records. The adjacent $2.00-2.25 trillion bucket at 29.5% reflects optimism around imminent prospectus filing next week and the May 19 Starship V3 test flight, though execution risks and prospectus disclosures on AI integration and Starship capex could pressure multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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