Recent delays in Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout and ongoing regulatory scrutiny for robotaxis have anchored trader consensus around a 73.5% chance that no Cybercab will reach $30,000 or lower pricing in 2026. Although the dedicated vehicle was unveiled in late 2024 with ambitious volume targets, production scaling for its novel hardware, sensor suite, and steer-by-wire architecture continues to face supply-chain and certification hurdles that historically stretch timelines by 12–18 months. Safety data from current supervised FSD deployments and state-level permitting requirements remain key swing factors, with any credible unsupervised approval or confirmed low-cost manufacturing milestone likely to shift odds quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays in Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout and ongoing regulatory scrutiny for robotaxis have anchored trader consensus around a 73.5% chance that no Cybercab will reach $30,000 or lower pricing in 2026. Although the dedicated vehicle was unveiled in late 2024 with ambitious volume targets, production scaling for its novel hardware, sensor suite, and steer-by-wire architecture continues to face supply-chain and certification hurdles that historically stretch timelines by 12–18 months. Safety data from current supervised FSD deployments and state-level permitting requirements remain key swing factors, with any credible unsupervised approval or confirmed low-cost manufacturing milestone likely to shift odds quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$35,757End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays in Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout and ongoing regulatory scrutiny for robotaxis have anchored trader consensus around a 73.5% chance that no Cybercab will reach $30,000 or lower pricing in 2026. Although the dedicated vehicle was unveiled in late 2024 with ambitious volume targets, production scaling for its novel hardware, sensor suite, and steer-by-wire architecture continues to face supply-chain and certification hurdles that historically stretch timelines by 12–18 months. Safety data from current supervised FSD deployments and state-level permitting requirements remain key swing factors, with any credible unsupervised approval or confirmed low-cost manufacturing milestone likely to shift odds quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,757End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent delays in Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout and ongoing regulatory scrutiny for robotaxis have anchored trader consensus around a 73.5% chance that no Cybercab will reach $30,000 or lower pricing in 2026. Although the dedicated vehicle was unveiled in late 2024 with ambitious volume targets, production scaling for its novel hardware, sensor suite, and steer-by-wire architecture continues to face supply-chain and certification hurdles that historically stretch timelines by 12–18 months. Safety data from current supervised FSD deployments and state-level permitting requirements remain key swing factors, with any credible unsupervised approval or confirmed low-cost manufacturing milestone likely to shift odds quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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