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icon for Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

icon for Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

$103,527 वॉल्यूम

30 जून, 2026
Polymarket

$103,527 वॉल्यूम

Polymarket

June 30

$95,563 वॉल्यूम

<1%

December 31

$7,964 वॉल्यूम

9%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot program centers on Gen 3 production starting in summer 2026 at the Fremont factory, with high-volume output targeted for 2027 at the expanding Giga Texas facility now rising to four floors. Recent Q1 2026 earnings commentary confirmed the shift from Model S/X lines to initial Optimus manufacturing lines capable of one million units annually, alongside ongoing work on advanced hands, pressure sensors, and AI5 chips for standalone operation. External sales remain off-limits as of mid-2026, with limited useful deployment expected outside Tesla by late 2026 at the earliest. Competitive pressure from other humanoid developers adds urgency, while Musk’s pattern of annual generational updates and simulation-based training continue to shape trader views on whether meaningful release thresholds will be met before key market resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
वॉल्यूम
$103,527
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Sep 26, 2025, 1:28 PM ET

समाधान स्रोत

..
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot program centers on Gen 3 production starting in summer 2026 at the Fremont factory, with high-volume output targeted for 2027 at the expanding Giga Texas facility now rising to four floors. Recent Q1 2026 earnings commentary confirmed the shift from Model S/X lines to initial Optimus manufacturing lines capable of one million units annually, alongside ongoing work on advanced hands, pressure sensors, and AI5 chips for standalone operation. External sales remain off-limits as of mid-2026, with limited useful deployment expected outside Tesla by late 2026 at the earliest. Competitive pressure from other humanoid developers adds urgency, while Musk’s pattern of annual generational updates and simulation-based training continue to shape trader views on whether meaningful release thresholds will be met before key market resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
वॉल्यूम
$103,527
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Sep 26, 2025, 1:28 PM ET

समाधान स्रोत

..
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

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अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"Will Tesla release Optimus by...?" Polymarket पर 2 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, December 31 9% (9¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद June 30 0% पर है।

आज तक, "Will Tesla release Optimus by...?" ने कुल $103.5K ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Sep 26, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

"Will Tesla release Optimus by...?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 2 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

यह एक खुला बाज़ार है। "Will Tesla release Optimus by...?" के लिए वर्तमान अग्रणी "December 31" केवल 9% पर है, "June 30" 0% पर पास है। किसी भी परिणाम के पास मज़बूत बहुमत नहीं होने से, ट्रेडर इसे अत्यधिक अनिश्चित मानते हैं। ये संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं।

"Will Tesla release Optimus by...?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।