Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment explains the strong 87% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van concept debuted at the 2024 We, Robot event with no subsequent production timeline, prototype updates, or preorder announcements through September 2026. Tesla has instead advanced Cybercab manufacturing efficiencies and limited paid service in Texas and Florida, while handling Semi factory ramp-up and other vehicle programs. Regulatory approvals, safety validation, and scaling challenges for a larger group-transit vehicle further support trader consensus that meaningful order activity remains unlikely until after the market's December 2026 cutoff.