Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.79 trillion reflects robust trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% to $775.68 billion and AWS acceleration to a $169 billion annualized run rate with 37% year-over-year expansion in Q2 2026. Elevated 2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion for AI infrastructure has compressed free cash flow and tempered near-term sentiment, anchoring trader consensus on the $2.50–3.00 trillion range as the most probable year-end outcome. Strong operating margins, a $496 billion AWS backlog, and analyst price targets above current levels provide upward support, while upcoming Q3 results on October 29 offer the next key catalyst for implied-probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 38%
$2.00-$2.50T 20%
$3.00-$3.50T 19%
$3.50-$4.00T 8%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
6%
$2.00-$2.50T
20%
$2.50-$3.00T
38%
$3.00-$3.50T
19%
$3.50-$4.00T
8%
$4.00-$4.50T
2%
$4.50T+
5%
$2.50-$3.00T 38%
$2.00-$2.50T 20%
$3.00-$3.50T 19%
$3.50-$4.00T 8%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$366 Vol.
6%
$2.00-$2.50T
$701 Vol.
20%
$2.50-$3.00T
$1,041 Vol.
38%
$3.00-$3.50T
$649 Vol.
19%
$3.50-$4.00T
$303 Vol.
8%
$4.00-$4.50T
$222 Vol.
2%
$4.50T+
$292 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.79 trillion reflects robust trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% to $775.68 billion and AWS acceleration to a $169 billion annualized run rate with 37% year-over-year expansion in Q2 2026. Elevated 2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion for AI infrastructure has compressed free cash flow and tempered near-term sentiment, anchoring trader consensus on the $2.50–3.00 trillion range as the most probable year-end outcome. Strong operating margins, a $496 billion AWS backlog, and analyst price targets above current levels provide upward support, while upcoming Q3 results on October 29 offer the next key catalyst for implied-probability shifts.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$3,575End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.79 trillion reflects robust trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% to $775.68 billion and AWS acceleration to a $169 billion annualized run rate with 37% year-over-year expansion in Q2 2026. Elevated 2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion for AI infrastructure has compressed free cash flow and tempered near-term sentiment, anchoring trader consensus on the $2.50–3.00 trillion range as the most probable year-end outcome. Strong operating margins, a $496 billion AWS backlog, and analyst price targets above current levels provide upward support, while upcoming Q3 results on October 29 offer the next key catalyst for implied-probability shifts.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$3,575End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.79 trillion reflects robust trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% to $775.68 billion and AWS acceleration to a $169 billion annualized run rate with 37% year-over-year expansion in Q2 2026. Elevated 2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion for AI infrastructure has compressed free cash flow and tempered near-term sentiment, anchoring trader consensus on the $2.50–3.00 trillion range as the most probable year-end outcome. Strong operating margins, a $496 billion AWS backlog, and analyst price targets above current levels provide upward support, while upcoming Q3 results on October 29 offer the next key catalyst for implied-probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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